{"source":"manifold","id":"UVjHrsTJk0796UXhzcaL","ticker":null,"slug":"will-apple-announce-the-launch-of-a-b458d168ad1b","title":"🚘 Will Apple announce the launch of a car by 2030?","description":"Resolves yes if, by the end of 2029, Apple officially announces that it will release a car. This does not require that the car be released or available by that date.\n\nSimilar market: https://manifold.markets/TatianaSurver/will-apple-announce-the-launch-of-a?referrer=JoelSteadman\n\nBackground: https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/apple-car/\n\nAcceptance criteria: Apple publicly announces some car model (rather than some sort of add-on that can be added to any car) under their brand that is purchasable by consumers. \n\nEdge cases: \n\nApple relying on another manufacturer for most of the engineering, but brands it as partially their own. Resolves YES\n\nThe car is basically just an existing model with some Apple modifications (like how Nike has the Apple Watch Nike) resolves YES only if it has some actual difference from the normal model and it is branded as Apple’s by Apple\n\nThe car exists but is not publicly released resolves NO","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FvEBrUiOBQV.png?alt=media&token=54ae0a97-def8-41c9-b524-fa9e65a6ca09","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-01-02T20:09:39.986000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":18319.847583241462,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.16947555541992,"liquidity":1230.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.09035,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"🚘 Will Apple announce the launch of a car by 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.09035,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/probajoelistic/will-apple-announce-the-launch-of-a-b458d168ad1b","chart_24h":[0.09035,0.09035],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"UVjHrsTJk0796UXhzcaL","event_id":"UVjHrsTJk0796UXhzcaL","slug":"will-apple-announce-the-launch-of-a-b458d168ad1b","question":"🚘 Will Apple announce the launch of a car by 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves yes if, by the end of 2029, Apple officially announces that it will release a car. This does not require that the car be released or available by that date.\n\nSimilar market: https://manifold.markets/TatianaSurver/will-apple-announce-the-launch-of-a?referrer=JoelSteadman\n\nBackground: https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/apple-car/\n\nAcceptance criteria: Apple publicly announces some car model (rather than some sort of add-on that can be added to any car) under their brand that is purchasable by consumers. \n\nEdge cases: \n\nApple relying on another manufacturer for most of the engineering, but brands it as partially their own. Resolves YES\n\nThe car is basically just an existing model with some Apple modifications (like how Nike has the Apple Watch Nike) resolves YES only if it has some actual difference from the normal model and it is branded as Apple’s by Apple\n\nThe car exists but is not publicly released resolves NO","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FvEBrUiOBQV.png?alt=media&token=54ae0a97-def8-41c9-b524-fa9e65a6ca09","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.09035,0.90965],"probability":0.09035,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-01-02T20:09:39.986000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":18319.847583241462,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.16947555541992,"liquidity":1230.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-23T09:17:38.366799Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/probajoelistic/will-apple-announce-the-launch-of-a-b458d168ad1b","event_title":"🚘 Will Apple announce the launch of a car by 2030?","chart_24h":[0.09035,0.09035]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/UVjHrsTJk0796UXhzcaL","as_of":"2026-06-10T12:50:59.138279Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"🚘 Will Apple announce the launch of a car by 2030?\" — top market at 9% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}