{"source":"manifold","id":"WAsCcWMUE3BGCQFTNeGN","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-performance-jump-from-gpt4","title":"Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?","description":"When GPT5 comes out, lists its capabilities according to all quantifiable metrics, and compare that to the same for GPT4 and GPT3.\n\nIf Capabilities(GPT5-GPT4) < Capabilities(GPT4-GPT3), this market resolves YES.\n\nOtherwise, this market resolves NO.\n\nThis is regardless of whether there are diminishing returns in the cost required to get from GPT4 to GPT5.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FR_KVSGUPlD.png?alt=media&token=3120ef1e-dc43-4f87-bc35-b589714247ac","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-04-01T18:39:36.297000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6081.9834055387655,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.500444412231445,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.794329,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?","top_outcome_probability":0.794329,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-performance-jump-from-gpt4","chart_24h":[0.794329,0.794329],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"WAsCcWMUE3BGCQFTNeGN","event_id":"WAsCcWMUE3BGCQFTNeGN","slug":"will-the-performance-jump-from-gpt4","question":"Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?","group_item_title":null,"description":"When GPT5 comes out, lists its capabilities according to all quantifiable metrics, and compare that to the same for GPT4 and GPT3.\n\nIf Capabilities(GPT5-GPT4) < Capabilities(GPT4-GPT3), this market resolves YES.\n\nOtherwise, this market resolves NO.\n\nThis is regardless of whether there are diminishing returns in the cost required to get from GPT4 to GPT5.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FR_KVSGUPlD.png?alt=media&token=3120ef1e-dc43-4f87-bc35-b589714247ac","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.794329,0.205671],"probability":0.794329,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-04-01T18:39:36.297000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6081.9834055387655,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.500444412231445,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-performance-jump-from-gpt4","event_title":"Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?","chart_24h":[0.794329,0.794329]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/WAsCcWMUE3BGCQFTNeGN","as_of":"2026-06-10T12:46:08.387296Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?\" — top market at 79% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}