{"source":"manifold","id":"WCsjjEUk1vxRy1wHNi63","ticker":null,"slug":"will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500","title":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?","description":"Original Lesswrong thread here.\n\nOriginal tweet here:\n\n[image]Unlinked market with shorter timeframes here: @/Joshua/when-will-we-know-that-any-past-ufo ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-21T18:56:28.266000Z","end_date":"2028-07-19T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10343790.314919928,"volume_24hr":10207.11685416007,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":58.38507843017578,"normalized_volume":97.90110778808594,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["eliezer-yudkowsky-25acf68e45f1","aliens","ufo"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.961117,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?","top_outcome_probability":0.961117,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0011170000000000346,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-19127.121822544977,"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:48:22.673936Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:48:22.673936Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500","chart_24h":[0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.961386,0.961386,0.961386,0.960143,0.960143,0.963057,0.963057,0.963057,0.963057,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"WCsjjEUk1vxRy1wHNi63","event_id":"WCsjjEUk1vxRy1wHNi63","slug":"will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500","question":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Original Lesswrong thread here.\n\nOriginal tweet here:\n\n[image]Unlinked market with shorter timeframes here: @/Joshua/when-will-we-know-that-any-past-ufo ","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.961117,0.038883],"probability":0.961117,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-21T18:56:28.266000Z","end_date":"2028-07-19T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10343790.314919928,"volume_24hr":10207.11685416007,"prob_24h_change":0.0011170000000000346,"volume_24h_change":-19127.121822544977,"normalized_vol_24hr":58.38507843017578,"normalized_volume":97.90110778808594,"liquidity":10000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:47:49.464696Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:47:49.464696Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500","event_title":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?","chart_24h":[0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.961386,0.961386,0.961386,0.960143,0.960143,0.963057,0.963057,0.963057,0.963057,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117,0.961117]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/WCsjjEUk1vxRy1wHNi63","as_of":"2026-06-21T12:04:29.661976Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?\" — top market at 96% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}