{"source":"manifold","id":"WCsjjEUk1vxRy1wHNi63","ticker":null,"slug":"will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500","title":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?","description":"Original Lesswrong thread here.\n\nOriginal tweet here:\n\n[image]Unlinked market with shorter timeframes here: @/Joshua/when-will-we-know-that-any-past-ufo ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-21T18:56:28.266000Z","end_date":"2028-07-19T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10411401.503265128,"volume_24hr":6164.977979628453,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":64.91504669189453,"normalized_volume":96.73471069335938,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["eliezer-yudkowsky-25acf68e45f1","aliens","ufo"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.965594,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?","top_outcome_probability":0.965594,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.005521999999999916,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":6054.977979628453,"updated_at":"2026-08-23T23:47:09.350603Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-23T23:47:09.350603Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500","chart_24h":[0.960072,0.960072,0.960072,0.960072,0.960072,0.960774,0.960774,0.960774,0.960774,0.960774,0.960774,0.960774,0.960007,0.960007,0.960007,0.960079,0.960079,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.966138,0.966138,0.966138,0.965594,0.965594],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"WCsjjEUk1vxRy1wHNi63","event_id":"WCsjjEUk1vxRy1wHNi63","slug":"will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500","question":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Original Lesswrong thread here.\n\nOriginal tweet here:\n\n[image]Unlinked market with shorter timeframes here: @/Joshua/when-will-we-know-that-any-past-ufo ","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.965594,0.034406],"probability":0.965594,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-21T18:56:28.266000Z","end_date":"2028-07-19T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10411401.503265128,"volume_24hr":6164.977979628453,"prob_24h_change":0.005521999999999916,"volume_24h_change":6054.977979628453,"normalized_vol_24hr":64.91504669189453,"normalized_volume":96.73471069335938,"liquidity":10000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-23T23:45:55.294647Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-23T23:45:55.294647Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500","event_title":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?","chart_24h":[0.960072,0.960072,0.960072,0.960072,0.960072,0.960774,0.960774,0.960774,0.960774,0.960774,0.960774,0.960774,0.960007,0.960007,0.960007,0.960079,0.960079,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.966138,0.966138,0.966138,0.965594,0.965594]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/WCsjjEUk1vxRy1wHNi63","as_of":"2026-08-24T00:05:44.658359Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?\" — top market at 97% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}