{"source":"manifold","id":"WD1VD4NMaaRG1ouof9LP","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-get-agi-before-2038","title":"Will we get AGI before 2038?","description":"Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2038\n\nHere are markets with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038  (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 \n\nOther questions for 2038:\n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-aaa7b812182d@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-e944d3f186ed \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-c3873b782b65 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-c57aceafb9dc@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-99db0a1a6f37 \n\nOther reference points for AGI: \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FY0uCtw8Yb1.png?alt=media&token=db67293a-4f37-435f-8a0e-58ad866c5502","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-03T20:10:08.078000Z","end_date":"2038-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10093.714526999176,"volume_24hr":15.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.060712814331055,"normalized_volume":31.910367965698242,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.698398,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we get AGI before 2038?","top_outcome_probability":0.698398,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.004116999999999926,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-158.18236154257593,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T06:55:54.702977Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T06:55:54.702977Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2038","chart_24h":[0.694281,0.694281,0.694281,0.694281,0.694281,0.694281,0.694281,0.694281,0.694281,0.694281,0.694281,0.698398],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"WD1VD4NMaaRG1ouof9LP","event_id":"WD1VD4NMaaRG1ouof9LP","slug":"will-we-get-agi-before-2038","question":"Will we get AGI before 2038?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2038\n\nHere are markets with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038  (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 \n\nOther questions for 2038:\n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-aaa7b812182d@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-e944d3f186ed \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-c3873b782b65 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-c57aceafb9dc@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-99db0a1a6f37 \n\nOther reference points for AGI: \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FY0uCtw8Yb1.png?alt=media&token=db67293a-4f37-435f-8a0e-58ad866c5502","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.698398,0.301602],"probability":0.698398,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-03T20:10:08.078000Z","end_date":"2038-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10093.714526999176,"volume_24hr":15.0,"prob_24h_change":0.004116999999999926,"volume_24h_change":-158.18236154257593,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.060712814331055,"normalized_volume":31.910367965698242,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T06:55:58.241639Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T06:55:17.326672Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2038","event_title":"Will we get AGI before 2038?","chart_24h":[0.694281,0.694281,0.694281,0.694281,0.694281,0.694281,0.694281,0.694281,0.694281,0.694281,0.694281,0.698398]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/WD1VD4NMaaRG1ouof9LP","as_of":"2026-06-10T10:24:27.063191Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will we get AGI before 2038?\" — top market at 70% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}