{"source":"manifold","id":"X1vnXCQWS3eEV1M799eH","ticker":null,"slug":"will-donald-trump-outlive-joe-biden","title":"Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?","description":"It resolves to N/A if both are alive on the closing date or if both die within 24 hours of each other.\n\nIf one of them is missing or otherwise presumed dead for more then 6 months, we assume they died at the date of their disappearance (until then they are presumed alive).","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CalColbertPollack%2Ff6c46b67a43e.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-31T22:36:57.189000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11575.06330632946,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.82851791381836,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.701712,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?","top_outcome_probability":0.701712,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-17T21:24:41.664112Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-17T21:24:41.664112Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NewCaird/will-donald-trump-outlive-joe-biden","chart_24h":[0.701712,0.701712],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"X1vnXCQWS3eEV1M799eH","event_id":"X1vnXCQWS3eEV1M799eH","slug":"will-donald-trump-outlive-joe-biden","question":"Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?","group_item_title":null,"description":"It resolves to N/A if both are alive on the closing date or if both die within 24 hours of each other.\n\nIf one of them is missing or otherwise presumed dead for more then 6 months, we assume they died at the date of their disappearance (until then they are presumed alive).","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CalColbertPollack%2Ff6c46b67a43e.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.701712,0.298288],"probability":0.701712,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-31T22:36:57.189000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11575.06330632946,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.82851791381836,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T03:24:48.285150Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-17T21:23:42.848921Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NewCaird/will-donald-trump-outlive-joe-biden","event_title":"Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?","chart_24h":[0.701712,0.701712]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/X1vnXCQWS3eEV1M799eH","as_of":"2026-07-25T18:54:36.680917Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?\" — top market at 70% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}