{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/X1vnXCQWS3eEV1M799eH","as_of":"2026-10-24T08:20:47.860725Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?\" — 73% as of 2026-10-18 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/X1vnXCQWS3eEV1M799eH","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/NewCaird/will-donald-trump-outlive-joe-biden"},"source":"manifold","id":"X1vnXCQWS3eEV1M799eH","ticker":null,"slug":"will-donald-trump-outlive-joe-biden","title":"Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?","description":"It resolves to N/A if both are alive on the closing date or if both die within 24 hours of each other.\n\nIf one of them is missing or otherwise presumed dead for more then 6 months, we assume they died at the date of their disappearance (until then they are presumed alive).","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CalColbertPollack%2Ff6c46b67a43e.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-31T22:36:57.189000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12351.704863919529,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.649600982666016,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.726751,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?","top_outcome_probability":0.726751,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-18T23:59:20.723948Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-18T23:59:20.723948Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NewCaird/will-donald-trump-outlive-joe-biden","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"X1vnXCQWS3eEV1M799eH","event_id":"X1vnXCQWS3eEV1M799eH","slug":"will-donald-trump-outlive-joe-biden","question":"Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?","group_item_title":null,"description":"It resolves to N/A if both are alive on the closing date or if both die within 24 hours of each other.\n\nIf one of them is missing or otherwise presumed dead for more then 6 months, we assume they died at the date of their disappearance (until then they are presumed alive).","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CalColbertPollack%2Ff6c46b67a43e.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.726751,0.273249],"probability":0.726751,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-31T22:36:57.189000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":12351.704863919529,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.649600982666016,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-18T23:58:38.089372Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-18T23:58:38.089372Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NewCaird/will-donald-trump-outlive-joe-biden","event_title":"Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?","chart_24h":null}]}