{"source":"manifold","id":"X3zlXDKlKNxi1LknVk5i","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-get-agi-before-july-2028","title":"Will we get AGI before July 1st 2028?","description":"Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as true if such a system is created and publicly announced before July 1st 2028\n\nHere are markets with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-1st-202-203f18122627 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-1st-202-cc476ae11c36 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-1st-202 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-2027 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-2028 (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-2029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-1st-203 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-1st-203-18f65a39a6d2 \n\nYearwise markets:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\nOther questions:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\nImage credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:AGI_circuit_board.png","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FhZk_eBK20x.png?alt=media&token=2da2ac9d-b582-4197-b091-2ce0d7240cb0","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-28T22:01:47.730000Z","end_date":"2028-10-01T21:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8612.361458602089,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":30.821292877197266,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.172483,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we get AGI before July 1st 2028?","top_outcome_probability":0.172483,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-july-2028","chart_24h":[0.172483,0.172483],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"X3zlXDKlKNxi1LknVk5i","event_id":"X3zlXDKlKNxi1LknVk5i","slug":"will-we-get-agi-before-july-2028","question":"Will we get AGI before July 1st 2028?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as true if such a system is created and publicly announced before July 1st 2028\n\nHere are markets with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-1st-202-203f18122627 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-1st-202-cc476ae11c36 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-1st-202 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-2027 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-2028 (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-2029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-1st-203 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-1st-203-18f65a39a6d2 \n\nYearwise markets:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\nOther questions:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\nImage credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:AGI_circuit_board.png","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FhZk_eBK20x.png?alt=media&token=2da2ac9d-b582-4197-b091-2ce0d7240cb0","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.172483,0.827517],"probability":0.172483,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-28T22:01:47.730000Z","end_date":"2028-10-01T21:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8612.361458602089,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":30.821292877197266,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-july-2028","event_title":"Will we get AGI before July 1st 2028?","chart_24h":[0.172483,0.172483]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/X3zlXDKlKNxi1LknVk5i","as_of":"2026-06-10T11:52:09.082901Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will we get AGI before July 1st 2028?\" — top market at 17% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}