{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/XRQ6p3kD5T3hNcg6FOGZ","as_of":"2026-10-24T07:36:22.562265Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"By 2050, will there be a cure to aging?\" — 46% as of 2026-10-13 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/XRQ6p3kD5T3hNcg6FOGZ","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/DanielKilian/by-2050-will-there-be-a-cure-to-agi"},"source":"manifold","id":"XRQ6p3kD5T3hNcg6FOGZ","ticker":null,"slug":"by-2050-will-there-be-a-cure-to-agi","title":"By 2050, will there be a cure to aging?","description":"Update 2025-09-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Will resolve based on broad 2050 consensus (scientists, doctors, media) on whether there is a \"cure for aging.\"\n\n+20 years life expectancy alone does not count; must materially change the aging process itself.\n\nAnimal/theoretical-only results don't qualify; requires convincing human evidence (either wide use or a small number of undeniable cases).\n\nIf longevity increases but it's debated whether aging is \"cured,\" resolution follows expert/public consensus.\n\nAim is to reflect common understanding in 2050, not technicalities.\n\nUpdate 2025-09-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If public/media narratives diverge from science, resolution will lean toward the scientific/medical side.\n\nIf scientists/doctors are split, resolution will follow the balance of credible expert views.\n\nAim is to reflect a reasonable read of the world in 2050, not technicalities.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-11-24T13:39:45.770000Z","end_date":"2050-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":265420.7305048087,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":57.37019729614258,"liquidity":2150.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.461518,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"By 2050, will there be a cure to aging?","top_outcome_probability":0.461518,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-13T16:19:44.389784Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-13T16:19:44.389784Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/DanielKilian/by-2050-will-there-be-a-cure-to-agi","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"XRQ6p3kD5T3hNcg6FOGZ","event_id":"XRQ6p3kD5T3hNcg6FOGZ","slug":"by-2050-will-there-be-a-cure-to-agi","question":"By 2050, will there be a cure to aging?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Update 2025-09-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Will resolve based on broad 2050 consensus (scientists, doctors, media) on whether there is a \"cure for aging.\"\n\n+20 years life expectancy alone does not count; must materially change the aging process itself.\n\nAnimal/theoretical-only results don't qualify; requires convincing human evidence (either wide use or a small number of undeniable cases).\n\nIf longevity increases but it's debated whether aging is \"cured,\" resolution follows expert/public consensus.\n\nAim is to reflect common understanding in 2050, not technicalities.\n\nUpdate 2025-09-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If public/media narratives diverge from science, resolution will lean toward the scientific/medical side.\n\nIf scientists/doctors are split, resolution will follow the balance of credible expert views.\n\nAim is to reflect a reasonable read of the world in 2050, not technicalities.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.461518,0.538482],"probability":0.461518,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-11-24T13:39:45.770000Z","end_date":"2050-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":265420.7305048087,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":57.37019729614258,"liquidity":2150.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-13T16:17:10.180396Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-13T16:17:10.180396Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/DanielKilian/by-2050-will-there-be-a-cure-to-agi","event_title":"By 2050, will there be a cure to aging?","chart_24h":null}]}