{"source":"manifold","id":"XTRIecctqBQmMeRjXWCM","ticker":null,"slug":"will-ai-surpass-human-intellect-by","title":"Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?","description":"Will Resolve yes if an AI is able to score more than 100 IQ points on an offical IQ re test about problem solving. If the IQ test contains questions that are just about retained knowlege (like \"who was the president in 2011\") it wont count. Will Resolve no if it does'nt resolve yes.\n\nThis market will predict whether or not artificial intelligence will out-perform humans in the area of problem solving.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F2g2pYarX_d.png?alt=media&token=d6a96673-d3f7-49ab-9fca-df3c4c7ade9b","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-11T12:20:55.573000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T23:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17099.671809714455,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.66337966918945,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.8399,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.8399,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/GamerBathGamerGutten/will-ai-surpass-human-intellect-by","chart_24h":[0.8399,0.8399],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"XTRIecctqBQmMeRjXWCM","event_id":"XTRIecctqBQmMeRjXWCM","slug":"will-ai-surpass-human-intellect-by","question":"Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Will Resolve yes if an AI is able to score more than 100 IQ points on an offical IQ re test about problem solving. If the IQ test contains questions that are just about retained knowlege (like \"who was the president in 2011\") it wont count. Will Resolve no if it does'nt resolve yes.\n\nThis market will predict whether or not artificial intelligence will out-perform humans in the area of problem solving.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F2g2pYarX_d.png?alt=media&token=d6a96673-d3f7-49ab-9fca-df3c4c7ade9b","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.8399,0.1601],"probability":0.8399,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-11T12:20:55.573000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T23:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17099.671809714455,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.66337966918945,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T17:41:01.558870Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-01T18:48:55.912489Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/GamerBathGamerGutten/will-ai-surpass-human-intellect-by","event_title":"Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?","chart_24h":[0.8399,0.8399]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/XTRIecctqBQmMeRjXWCM","as_of":"2026-06-10T11:38:24.091405Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?\" — top market at 84% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}