{"source":"manifold","id":"XrYS9PnB8zyY4tiEpXj3","ticker":null,"slug":"will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-1be18a6d77f6","title":"Will a human walk on the moon again before 2032?","description":"Resolves YES if a human sets foot on the moon after 2000 but before 2032.\n\n(The 2030 market has a large amount of No positions even at 80%, so let's see where people become sure it'll happen!)\n\n<2025:\n\n@/levifinkelstein/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-by-th \n\n@/AmmonLam/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon-97aac7e1ff3b \n\n@/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l<2026:\n\n@/Treldman/will-there-be-a-new-human-moon-land \n\n@/BoltonBailey/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon \n\n@/AmmonLam/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon-f11b40742c45 \n\n@/wadimiusz/by-the-start-of-2026-will-any-human \n\n@/Jack_Rose/will-a-country-put-another-flag-on \n\n@/JohnChristou/will-nasa-and-spacex-succeed-with-i \n\n<2027:\n\n@/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l-7fdd8a8e8033 \n\n@/Odoacre/will-a-human-astronaut-land-on-the \n\n@/ChadwickMiller/will-astronauts-walk-on-the-moon-be \n\n<2028:\n\n@/StanPinsent/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-20 \n\n@/jack/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-befor \n\n@/calderknight/will-starship-reach-space-in-2023-x \n\n2028 or later:\n\n@/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again \n\n@/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-2fc067c3b7fb \n\n@/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-6204f804eafd \n\n@/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-1be18a6d77f6 \n\n@/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-8dae5a22f504 \n\nMultiple choice:\n\n@/SenneVanHeghe/when-will-humans-set-foot-on-the-mo \n\n@/JosephNoonan/when-will-the-next-moon-landing-occ \n\nSee also:\n\n@/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-uncrewed-demo-laun \n\n@/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be-4762f93e6882 \n\nArtemis 2 timeline: @/Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2026 ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FLwDYvqtoAL.png?alt=media&token=bdd9d9be-c4c4-4c76-aa9b-e7d6c64ba35d","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-04-10T18:45:05.569000Z","end_date":"2031-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7377.285792636658,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.777057647705078,"liquidity":1160.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.81,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will a human walk on the moon again before 2032?","top_outcome_probability":0.81,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-1be18a6d77f6","chart_24h":[0.81,0.81],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"XrYS9PnB8zyY4tiEpXj3","event_id":"XrYS9PnB8zyY4tiEpXj3","slug":"will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-1be18a6d77f6","question":"Will a human walk on the moon again before 2032?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves YES if a human sets foot on the moon after 2000 but before 2032.\n\n(The 2030 market has a large amount of No positions even at 80%, so let's see where people become sure it'll happen!)\n\n<2025:\n\n@/levifinkelstein/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-by-th \n\n@/AmmonLam/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon-97aac7e1ff3b \n\n@/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l<2026:\n\n@/Treldman/will-there-be-a-new-human-moon-land \n\n@/BoltonBailey/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon \n\n@/AmmonLam/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon-f11b40742c45 \n\n@/wadimiusz/by-the-start-of-2026-will-any-human \n\n@/Jack_Rose/will-a-country-put-another-flag-on \n\n@/JohnChristou/will-nasa-and-spacex-succeed-with-i \n\n<2027:\n\n@/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l-7fdd8a8e8033 \n\n@/Odoacre/will-a-human-astronaut-land-on-the \n\n@/ChadwickMiller/will-astronauts-walk-on-the-moon-be \n\n<2028:\n\n@/StanPinsent/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-20 \n\n@/jack/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-befor \n\n@/calderknight/will-starship-reach-space-in-2023-x \n\n2028 or later:\n\n@/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again \n\n@/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-2fc067c3b7fb \n\n@/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-6204f804eafd \n\n@/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-1be18a6d77f6 \n\n@/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-8dae5a22f504 \n\nMultiple choice:\n\n@/SenneVanHeghe/when-will-humans-set-foot-on-the-mo \n\n@/JosephNoonan/when-will-the-next-moon-landing-occ \n\nSee also:\n\n@/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-uncrewed-demo-laun \n\n@/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be-4762f93e6882 \n\nArtemis 2 timeline: @/Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2026 ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FLwDYvqtoAL.png?alt=media&token=bdd9d9be-c4c4-4c76-aa9b-e7d6c64ba35d","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.81,0.19],"probability":0.81,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-04-10T18:45:05.569000Z","end_date":"2031-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7377.285792636658,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.777057647705078,"liquidity":1160.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-1be18a6d77f6","event_title":"Will a human walk on the moon again before 2032?","chart_24h":[0.81,0.81]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/XrYS9PnB8zyY4tiEpXj3","as_of":"2026-06-10T15:32:39.601458Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will a human walk on the moon again before 2032?\" — top market at 81% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}