{"source":"manifold","id":"Z8csnnSEdz","ticker":null,"slug":"will-a-vaccine-against-the-andes-vi","title":"Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027?","description":"Andes virus is a member of the hantavirus family responsible for the MV Hondius cruise ship outbreak.  \n\nThe only vaccine against hantaviruses in use is Hantavax which targets Hantaan river virus and Seoul virus, both \"old world\" hantaviruses, causing different symptoms than \"new world\" hantaviruses like the Andes virus (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hantavirus_vaccine)\n\nModerna has been working on mRNA hantavirus vaccine, though this seems to target old world hantaviruses as well:\n\nhttps://brusselssignal.eu/2026/05/korea-university-and-moderna-have-been-working-on-mrna-hantavirus-vaccine-since-2023/\n\nResolves YES if any officially sanctioned vaccine trial in humans occurs before close date, where:\n\nthe vaccine has preclinical data suggesting possible efficacy against Andes virus\n\nthe trial has testing efficacy against Andes virus among its goals\n\nAs @Cactus noted, there was a vaccine tested earlier (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37380156/). This market will only consider trials that happen after market creation (specifically, that the vaccine is administered to humans after market creation, if the trial started or was designed earlier, it still counts).\n\nThe results of the trial are not relevant for resolution.\n\nI will not bet on this market.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-07T13:49:00.525000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3191.609364441672,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":24.43910026550293,"liquidity":300.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.246527,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.246527,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":"2026-05-13T10:02:04.159958Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/AIBear/will-a-vaccine-against-the-andes-vi","chart_24h":[0.246527,0.246527],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"Z8csnnSEdz","event_id":"Z8csnnSEdz","slug":"will-a-vaccine-against-the-andes-vi","question":"Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Andes virus is a member of the hantavirus family responsible for the MV Hondius cruise ship outbreak.  \n\nThe only vaccine against hantaviruses in use is Hantavax which targets Hantaan river virus and Seoul virus, both \"old world\" hantaviruses, causing different symptoms than \"new world\" hantaviruses like the Andes virus (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hantavirus_vaccine)\n\nModerna has been working on mRNA hantavirus vaccine, though this seems to target old world hantaviruses as well:\n\nhttps://brusselssignal.eu/2026/05/korea-university-and-moderna-have-been-working-on-mrna-hantavirus-vaccine-since-2023/\n\nResolves YES if any officially sanctioned vaccine trial in humans occurs before close date, where:\n\nthe vaccine has preclinical data suggesting possible efficacy against Andes virus\n\nthe trial has testing efficacy against Andes virus among its goals\n\nAs @Cactus noted, there was a vaccine tested earlier (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37380156/). This market will only consider trials that happen after market creation (specifically, that the vaccine is administered to humans after market creation, if the trial started or was designed earlier, it still counts).\n\nThe results of the trial are not relevant for resolution.\n\nI will not bet on this market.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.246527,0.753473],"probability":0.246527,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-07T13:49:00.525000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3191.609364441672,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":24.43910026550293,"liquidity":300.0,"categories":["Health"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:36:25.491276Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T18:54:14.449029Z","added_at":"2026-05-13T10:02:04.159958Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/AIBear/will-a-vaccine-against-the-andes-vi","event_title":"Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027?","chart_24h":[0.246527,0.246527]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/Z8csnnSEdz","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:08:02.129599Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027?\" — top market at 25% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}