{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/ZPAtYBYScwMglMD1MUYg","as_of":"2026-10-24T08:54:04.564905Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)\" — 12% as of 2026-08-20 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/ZPAtYBYScwMglMD1MUYg","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/Siebe/if-trump-is-elected-will-the-us-sti"},"source":"manifold","id":"ZPAtYBYScwMglMD1MUYg","ticker":null,"slug":"if-trump-is-elected-will-the-us-sti","title":"If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)","description":"This will be resolved based on the first V-DEM report after his term (i.e. March 2029), which collects data up to and including 2028.'\n\nhttps://v-dem.net/\n\nIf Trump is not elected in 2024, this market will close NA (all mana returned).\n\nCompanion question:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Siebe/if-a-democrat-is-elected-president)","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Siebe%2F1477775ca9f1.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-23T21:36:21.950000Z","end_date":"2029-01-21T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":43017.20724748545,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":41.87010192871094,"liquidity":1115.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.120033,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)","top_outcome_probability":0.120033,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-08-20T15:18:03.977290Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-20T15:18:03.977290Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Siebe/if-trump-is-elected-will-the-us-sti","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"ZPAtYBYScwMglMD1MUYg","event_id":"ZPAtYBYScwMglMD1MUYg","slug":"if-trump-is-elected-will-the-us-sti","question":"If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)","group_item_title":null,"description":"This will be resolved based on the first V-DEM report after his term (i.e. March 2029), which collects data up to and including 2028.'\n\nhttps://v-dem.net/\n\nIf Trump is not elected in 2024, this market will close NA (all mana returned).\n\nCompanion question:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Siebe/if-a-democrat-is-elected-president)","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Siebe%2F1477775ca9f1.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.120033,0.879967],"probability":0.120033,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-23T21:36:21.950000Z","end_date":"2029-01-21T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":43017.20724748545,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":41.87010192871094,"liquidity":1115.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-28T20:35:41.262300Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-20T15:14:37.959355Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Siebe/if-trump-is-elected-will-the-us-sti","event_title":"If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)","chart_24h":null}]}