{"source":"manifold","id":"aEsDI4Z6fR7NNnL2O7ic","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-next-book-of-a-song-of-ice","title":"Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030?","description":"Resolves YES if the sixth novel (current title: \"The Winds of Winter\") in the series A Song Of Ice And Fire is released by end of 2030, and is authored by George R. R. Martin.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-07-24T22:17:59.142000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6375.8504665883365,"volume_24hr":7.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":3.3445820808410645,"normalized_volume":28.777700424194336,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Culture"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.665134,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.665134,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":7.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T23:37:41.173650Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T23:37:41.173650Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-next-book-of-a-song-of-ice","chart_24h":[0.665134,0.665134,0.665134],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"aEsDI4Z6fR7NNnL2O7ic","event_id":"aEsDI4Z6fR7NNnL2O7ic","slug":"will-the-next-book-of-a-song-of-ice","question":"Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves YES if the sixth novel (current title: \"The Winds of Winter\") in the series A Song Of Ice And Fire is released by end of 2030, and is authored by George R. R. Martin.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.665134,0.334866],"probability":0.665134,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-07-24T22:17:59.142000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6375.8504665883365,"volume_24hr":7.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":7.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.254371166229248,"normalized_volume":28.777700424194336,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Culture"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T23:36:41.206662Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T23:36:41.206662Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-next-book-of-a-song-of-ice","event_title":"Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030?","chart_24h":[0.665134,0.665134,0.665134]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/aEsDI4Z6fR7NNnL2O7ic","as_of":"2026-07-26T00:03:16.660739Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030?\" — top market at 67% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}