{"source":"manifold","id":"aJNfiOgnBj8XYDdyrsbb","ticker":null,"slug":"will-trump-attempt-to-run-for-a-thi","title":"If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?","description":"In Ben Shapiro and Destiny's debate,\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5I6A2cukme8\nBen Shapiro claim that there is 0% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term US president, while Destiny claim that there's 100% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term. Who is right?\n\nI use a rather broad definition of 'attempt' here. Resolves to 'Yes' if there is any attempt by Trump to run for a third term as president. This includes public statements, fundraising efforts, or other indications suggesting he is considering a run for a third term.\n\n\nResolves NA if Trump did not become president in 2024\n\nResolves 'No' if there is no evidence for Trump attempting to run for a third term by the end of 2032.\n\n\n\nEdit: If Trump was making a joking about running for 3rd term president that wouldn’t count. In case that it is difficult to determine if Trump is joking or not, I’ll consult with traders here. \n\nEdit: If no clear statement or quote from Trump is available, I do not consider that sufficient evidence for the market to resolve YES. \n\n\n\n[Edit May 6, 2025]:  For the record, I’m handing over the ownership of the market to @shankypanky, she has the final say on the market resolution and all clarifications on the market.\n\nPinning the voting page here on whether this market should have resolved Yes already.\nhttps://manifold.markets/Balasar/should-manifold-market-resolve-as-y?play=true","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2F861ab7b87f88.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-24T04:35:02.552000Z","end_date":"2028-11-08T06:32:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":186698.42741467783,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":55.3009033203125,"liquidity":1540.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Elections"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.210485,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?","top_outcome_probability":0.210485,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-trump-attempt-to-run-for-a-thi","chart_24h":[0.210485,0.210485],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"aJNfiOgnBj8XYDdyrsbb","event_id":"aJNfiOgnBj8XYDdyrsbb","slug":"will-trump-attempt-to-run-for-a-thi","question":"If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?","group_item_title":null,"description":"In Ben Shapiro and Destiny's debate,\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5I6A2cukme8\nBen Shapiro claim that there is 0% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term US president, while Destiny claim that there's 100% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term. Who is right?\n\nI use a rather broad definition of 'attempt' here. Resolves to 'Yes' if there is any attempt by Trump to run for a third term as president. This includes public statements, fundraising efforts, or other indications suggesting he is considering a run for a third term.\n\n\nResolves NA if Trump did not become president in 2024\n\nResolves 'No' if there is no evidence for Trump attempting to run for a third term by the end of 2032.\n\n\n\nEdit: If Trump was making a joking about running for 3rd term president that wouldn’t count. In case that it is difficult to determine if Trump is joking or not, I’ll consult with traders here. \n\nEdit: If no clear statement or quote from Trump is available, I do not consider that sufficient evidence for the market to resolve YES. \n\n\n\n[Edit May 6, 2025]:  For the record, I’m handing over the ownership of the market to @shankypanky, she has the final say on the market resolution and all clarifications on the market.\n\nPinning the voting page here on whether this market should have resolved Yes already.\nhttps://manifold.markets/Balasar/should-manifold-market-resolve-as-y?play=true","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2F861ab7b87f88.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.210485,0.789515],"probability":0.210485,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-24T04:35:02.552000Z","end_date":"2028-11-08T06:32:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":186698.42741467783,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":55.3009033203125,"liquidity":1540.0,"categories":["Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:43.497510Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-trump-attempt-to-run-for-a-thi","event_title":"If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?","chart_24h":[0.210485,0.210485]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/aJNfiOgnBj8XYDdyrsbb","as_of":"2026-06-10T12:49:09.638071Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?\" — top market at 21% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}