{"source":"manifold","id":"aaAG7OCnwvBx00gjwwFZ","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39","title":"Will we get fusion reactors before 2030?","description":"Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2030 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).\n\nQuestions with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39 (this question)\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-02fec46476dd \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a34a5044ccca \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-607391b6e7ff \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-9594f28b5777 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-c3873b782b65 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-8213a4d4f7e6 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-ca980dd1dca2 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-719c22dafd13 \n\nNumeric market:\n\n@/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors \n\nOther reference points for fusion reactors:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-585b179f8ac3 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ba35c785123c \n\nOther questions for 2030:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-f0c1a341f8ea \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-59822776e416 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa  \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-35fc023d619f \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440 \n\n@/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-d5d68a482594 \n\nEngineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven\n\nThe fusion reactor must have been built by human civilization or one of its descendants in order to qualify in the context of this question.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FC2jzXesVKx.png?alt=media&token=70a4d6a1-6839-4c9b-8ea2-0fc906bbb1b3","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-17T17:42:47.291000Z","end_date":"2030-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5752.869339397498,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.13772964477539,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.128288,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we get fusion reactors before 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.128288,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39","chart_24h":[0.128288,0.128288],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"aaAG7OCnwvBx00gjwwFZ","event_id":"aaAG7OCnwvBx00gjwwFZ","slug":"will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39","question":"Will we get fusion reactors before 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2030 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).\n\nQuestions with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39 (this question)\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-02fec46476dd \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a34a5044ccca \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-607391b6e7ff \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-9594f28b5777 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-c3873b782b65 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-8213a4d4f7e6 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-ca980dd1dca2 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-719c22dafd13 \n\nNumeric market:\n\n@/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors \n\nOther reference points for fusion reactors:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-585b179f8ac3 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ba35c785123c \n\nOther questions for 2030:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-f0c1a341f8ea \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-59822776e416 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa  \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-35fc023d619f \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440 \n\n@/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-d5d68a482594 \n\nEngineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven\n\nThe fusion reactor must have been built by human civilization or one of its descendants in order to qualify in the context of this question.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FC2jzXesVKx.png?alt=media&token=70a4d6a1-6839-4c9b-8ea2-0fc906bbb1b3","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.128288,0.871712],"probability":0.128288,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-17T17:42:47.291000Z","end_date":"2030-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5752.869339397498,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.13772964477539,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39","event_title":"Will we get fusion reactors before 2030?","chart_24h":[0.128288,0.128288]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/aaAG7OCnwvBx00gjwwFZ","as_of":"2026-06-10T12:51:22.048377Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will we get fusion reactors before 2030?\" — top market at 13% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}