{"source":"manifold","id":"absetlqg1a","ticker":null,"slug":"will-tesla-offer-a-robotaxi-service-hld91s7u3r","title":"Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service in California by the end of 2026?","description":"Will it be possible for a non Tesla employee to ride in a fully autonomous Tesla vehicle in California by the end of 2026?\n\nHas to be a paid service that non Tesla employees can use. Has to be in a car not owned or leased by the rider. Has to be a point to point ride of at least 1 mile. Has to be on public roads in a city. Hailing app could be third-party, but car guidance/self-driving must be handled by Tesla. \n\nBoring company tunnels don’t count. \n\nUpdate 2025-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Safety Driver Clarification:\n\nRides that involve a safety driver in the vehicle will not count as fully autonomous.\n\nOnly rides with no human intervention in control (i.e., without a safety driver) will meet the criteria for a valid Robo-Taxi service.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution criteria with the following points:\n\nA service with a waitlist or that is invite-only will count, as long as riders are not Tesla employees.\n\nTo be considered \"offering the service,\" there must be a significant scale of operation. The creator has proposed a threshold of 50,000 rides per week in California. A single ride or token presence will not be sufficient.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has reinforced the resolution criteria regarding the scale of the service:\n\nTo resolve to YES, the service must be operating at a scale of at least 50,000 rides per week in California.\n\nThis threshold is being held firm and is benchmarked against Waymo's public launch figures in San Francisco.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has revised the scale required for the service to count for a YES resolution, based on a user's suggestion to use Waymo's earlier launch numbers as a benchmark.\n\nThe previously established threshold of 50,000 rides per week has been lowered.\n\nThe new proposed threshold is approximately 15,000 rides per week, based on Waymo's figures from September 2023.\n\nUpdate 2025-08-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Safety passenger setup will not qualify: A Tesla robo-taxi service that operates with a \"safety passenger\" in the vehicle will not resolve this market to YES, as it does not meet the fully autonomous criteria.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/DavidFWatson/vnv3n2re1k.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-10-12T00:32:03.160000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":54186.93854280243,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":44.60271072387695,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.046409,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service in California by the end of 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.046409,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-05T22:48:23.079890Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-05T22:48:23.079890Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/DavidFWatson/will-tesla-offer-a-robotaxi-service-hld91s7u3r","chart_24h":[0.046409,0.046409],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"absetlqg1a","event_id":"absetlqg1a","slug":"will-tesla-offer-a-robotaxi-service-hld91s7u3r","question":"Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service in California by the end of 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Will it be possible for a non Tesla employee to ride in a fully autonomous Tesla vehicle in California by the end of 2026?\n\nHas to be a paid service that non Tesla employees can use. Has to be in a car not owned or leased by the rider. Has to be a point to point ride of at least 1 mile. Has to be on public roads in a city. Hailing app could be third-party, but car guidance/self-driving must be handled by Tesla. \n\nBoring company tunnels don’t count. \n\nUpdate 2025-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Safety Driver Clarification:\n\nRides that involve a safety driver in the vehicle will not count as fully autonomous.\n\nOnly rides with no human intervention in control (i.e., without a safety driver) will meet the criteria for a valid Robo-Taxi service.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution criteria with the following points:\n\nA service with a waitlist or that is invite-only will count, as long as riders are not Tesla employees.\n\nTo be considered \"offering the service,\" there must be a significant scale of operation. The creator has proposed a threshold of 50,000 rides per week in California. A single ride or token presence will not be sufficient.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has reinforced the resolution criteria regarding the scale of the service:\n\nTo resolve to YES, the service must be operating at a scale of at least 50,000 rides per week in California.\n\nThis threshold is being held firm and is benchmarked against Waymo's public launch figures in San Francisco.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has revised the scale required for the service to count for a YES resolution, based on a user's suggestion to use Waymo's earlier launch numbers as a benchmark.\n\nThe previously established threshold of 50,000 rides per week has been lowered.\n\nThe new proposed threshold is approximately 15,000 rides per week, based on Waymo's figures from September 2023.\n\nUpdate 2025-08-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Safety passenger setup will not qualify: A Tesla robo-taxi service that operates with a \"safety passenger\" in the vehicle will not resolve this market to YES, as it does not meet the fully autonomous criteria.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/DavidFWatson/vnv3n2re1k.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.046409,0.953591],"probability":0.046409,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-10-12T00:32:03.160000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":54186.93854280243,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":44.60271072387695,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:36:25.491276Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-05T22:46:07.329755Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/DavidFWatson/will-tesla-offer-a-robotaxi-service-hld91s7u3r","event_title":"Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service in California by the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.046409,0.046409]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/absetlqg1a","as_of":"2026-06-10T12:43:28.908914Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service in California by the end of 2026?\" — top market at 5% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}