{"source":"manifold","id":"azNZRIRoDWiBbpQhdPtc","ticker":"azNZRIRoDWiBbpQhdPtc","slug":"russia-coupnuke-combination-market","title":"Russia coup-nuke combination market","description":"A combination of https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-russia-nuke-ukraine and https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-a-coup-or-regime-change-take-p using their resolution criteria.\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Gigacasting/will-russia-nuke-ukraine)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MetaculusBot/will-a-coup-or-regime-change-take-p)","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F73UpTGeSpA.png?alt=media&token=73f79a40-d603-4d96-ac4a-d5a2f0e20b89","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-06-23T22:29:04.467000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21520.293340901673,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.356197357177734,"liquidity":2280.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":["politics-default","nuclear","ukrainerussia-war"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"No nuke Ukraine, No coup success","top_outcome_probability":0.934156,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-05-09T04:32:23.026439Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-09T04:32:23.026439Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ChristopherKing/russia-coupnuke-combination-market","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"70e62042076f","event_id":"azNZRIRoDWiBbpQhdPtc","slug":null,"question":"No nuke Ukraine, No coup success","group_item_title":"No nuke Ukraine, No coup success","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.934156,0.065844],"probability":0.934156,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-06-23T22:29:04.644000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6934.396480129448,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.357318878173828,"liquidity":490.75880808082786,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-06-16T18:09:45.085052Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-16T18:09:39.678253Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ChristopherKing/russia-coupnuke-combination-market","event_title":"Russia coup-nuke combination market","chart_24h":[0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156,0.934156]},{"source":"manifold","id":"596fde857b65","event_id":"azNZRIRoDWiBbpQhdPtc","slug":null,"question":"Yes nuke Ukraine, No coup success","group_item_title":"Yes nuke Ukraine, No coup success","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.061328,0.938672],"probability":0.061328,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-06-23T22:29:04.644000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":478.0855441242371,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":14.296018600463867,"liquidity":334.57498001743335,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-06-16T18:09:45.085052Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-16T18:09:39.678253Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ChristopherKing/russia-coupnuke-combination-market","event_title":"Russia coup-nuke combination market","chart_24h":[0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328,0.061328]},{"source":"manifold","id":"088a61fe3ad7","event_id":"azNZRIRoDWiBbpQhdPtc","slug":null,"question":"No nuke Ukraine, Yes coup success","group_item_title":"No nuke Ukraine, Yes coup success","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.003799,0.996201],"probability":0.003799,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-06-23T22:29:04.644000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":16.86649224070394,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":3.1192312240600586,"liquidity":490.35816762842614,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-06-16T18:09:45.085052Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-16T18:09:39.678253Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ChristopherKing/russia-coupnuke-combination-market","event_title":"Russia coup-nuke combination market","chart_24h":[0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799,0.003799]},{"source":"manifold","id":"aef8af74c8d3","event_id":"azNZRIRoDWiBbpQhdPtc","slug":null,"question":"Yes nuke Ukraine, Yes coup success","group_item_title":"Yes nuke Ukraine, Yes coup success","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.000717,0.999283],"probability":0.000717,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-06-23T22:29:04.644000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":189.85996333583677,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-06-16T18:09:45.085052Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-16T18:09:39.678253Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ChristopherKing/russia-coupnuke-combination-market","event_title":"Russia coup-nuke combination market","chart_24h":[0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717,0.000717]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/azNZRIRoDWiBbpQhdPtc","as_of":"2026-06-16T18:11:02.218839Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Russia coup-nuke combination market\" — top market at 93% probability across 4 outcomes","source_url":null}}