{"source":"manifold","id":"b1l9MpgwD9MuswKndmHh","ticker":"b1l9MpgwD9MuswKndmHh","slug":"if-donald-trump-is-elected-which-of","title":"If Donald Trump is elected, which of his campaign promises will be achieved?","description":"Which of Donald Trump's campaign promises will he actually achieve?\n\nAll options are taken from https://www.donaldjtrump.com/issues or https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/agenda47-cementing-fair-and-reciprocal-trade-with-the-trump-reciprocal-trade-act\n\nResolves YES for any items that have been achieved by the end of his presidency. They have to actually have been achieved (for example, a bill has passed to ban trans women from participating in women's sports, a constitutional amendment has been passed), though it doesn't have to be the most complete version, just enough that it's reasonable to say that it has been achieved (for example, trans women could be banned at the high school level but not college level). He doesn't have to have directly caused it to happen, it just has to have happened. They do have to have occurred nationwide however (so individual states banning trans women would not count without a nationwide ban).\n\nIf any promise was debatably already true (for example, ending COVID mandates), he must take some action to go further.\n\nFor many of these, it will ultimately wind up being somewhat subjective, but I will do my best to be impartial and defer to consensus opinion, and I will not hold any positions in this market. If any are too ambiguous, I reserve the right to resolve N/A.\n\nAll options resolve N/A if Donald Trump is not elected president in 2024.\n\nFor some positions that are not objective on Trump's campaign website, I will provide a specific definition below. For items that are based on a given date, I will as close as possible compare December 31, 2024 with December 31, 2028, or compare December 2024 with December 2028. 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