{"source":"manifold","id":"b2npwzsZCGtn8aQ47PNO","ticker":null,"slug":"will-ev-batteries-cost-less-than-10","title":"Will EV batteries cost less than 1000 USD in 2030?","description":"Batteries are the major cost in EV prices.\n\nHowever, the rate of improvement of battery costs over the last 11 years is a 90% improvement. If you take that 90% improvement from $50/kWh in 2025 over 11 years to 2036, it goes something like this:\n\n2025: $50/kWh\n\n2027: $38/kWh\n\n2030: $25/kWh\n\n2033: $12/kWh\n\n2036: $5/kWh\n\nIn the end, if this pace of innovation in battery costs being reduced happens, the 200-mile range EV in 2030 would most likely have an around 40 kWh battery pack, be very lightweight, and get about 5 miles per kWh. That pack would cost around $1,000.\n\nJust for fun, if you take 2036 to 2047, and if you use another 90% reduction, you get a cost per kWh in 2047 of around $0.50 or 50 cents. That makes a 200-mile range EV with a 40 kWh battery pack have a pack cost of $20. Seems absolutely insane when you think of it today.\n\nSource\n\nThis market outcome resolves true if the battery pack of 200-mile range EVs cost 1000 USD or less by Jan 1, 2030.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/SimoneRomeo%2F7611b0925e8c.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-22T13:29:38.994000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T15:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":13896.560946572283,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.14649963378906,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Business"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.185173,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will EV batteries cost less than 1000 USD in 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.185173,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-17T15:51:56.414374Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-17T15:51:56.414374Z","added_at":"2026-06-16T15:44:39.073803Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/SimoneRomeo/will-ev-batteries-cost-less-than-10","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"b2npwzsZCGtn8aQ47PNO","event_id":"b2npwzsZCGtn8aQ47PNO","slug":"will-ev-batteries-cost-less-than-10","question":"Will EV batteries cost less than 1000 USD in 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Batteries are the major cost in EV prices.\n\nHowever, the rate of improvement of battery costs over the last 11 years is a 90% improvement. If you take that 90% improvement from $50/kWh in 2025 over 11 years to 2036, it goes something like this:\n\n2025: $50/kWh\n\n2027: $38/kWh\n\n2030: $25/kWh\n\n2033: $12/kWh\n\n2036: $5/kWh\n\nIn the end, if this pace of innovation in battery costs being reduced happens, the 200-mile range EV in 2030 would most likely have an around 40 kWh battery pack, be very lightweight, and get about 5 miles per kWh. That pack would cost around $1,000.\n\nJust for fun, if you take 2036 to 2047, and if you use another 90% reduction, you get a cost per kWh in 2047 of around $0.50 or 50 cents. That makes a 200-mile range EV with a 40 kWh battery pack have a pack cost of $20. Seems absolutely insane when you think of it today.\n\nSource\n\nThis market outcome resolves true if the battery pack of 200-mile range EVs cost 1000 USD or less by Jan 1, 2030.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/SimoneRomeo%2F7611b0925e8c.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.185173,0.814827],"probability":0.185173,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-22T13:29:38.994000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T15:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":13896.560946572283,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.14649963378906,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Business"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-24T22:34:23.981600Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-17T15:51:11.854302Z","added_at":"2026-06-16T15:44:39.073803Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/SimoneRomeo/will-ev-batteries-cost-less-than-10","event_title":"Will EV batteries cost less than 1000 USD in 2030?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/b2npwzsZCGtn8aQ47PNO","as_of":"2026-06-25T22:11:29.710855Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will EV batteries cost less than 1000 USD in 2030?\" — top market at 19% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}