{"source":"manifold","id":"bvzicqiyet","ticker":null,"slug":"will-there-be-over-10000-optimus-ro","title":"Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?","description":"“My prediction is next year we’ll have over a thousand, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla.” \n\nhttps://x.com/SmokeAwayyy/status/1801400924096839732\n\n[tweet]This was a prediction made during the Tesla 2024 Annual Stockholder Meeting. \n\nI take \"working\" to mean autonomously deployed in factories and performing productive labor.\n\nUpdate 2025-06-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified their interpretation of productive labor:\n\nRobots dancing as entertainers for the human factory workforce would be considered as performing productive labor.\n\nUpdate 2026-03-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A robot counts as 'working at Tesla' if it meets all of the following:\n\nDeployed on a Tesla facility floor in a capacity intended to contribute to operations\n\nSwitched on and active (not just stacked in a corner)\n\nRobots still being supervised, still learning, or spending some time on training still count\n\nRobots solely in R&D labs and never deployed to an operational facility do not count\n\nThe 10,000 threshold must be met all at once, not cumulatively\n\nUpdate 2026-03-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A scenario where robots must recharge (e.g., half recharging at any given time) still counts toward the 10,000 threshold, as long as 10,000 are deployed at once in a qualifying capacity.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/DavidFWatson/nwkp5jbedu.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-10-13T21:55:01.446000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T13:29:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":30903.161370762053,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":40.12538528442383,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.036179,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.036179,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-07T14:40:07.566218Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-07T14:40:07.566218Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/DavidFWatson/will-there-be-over-10000-optimus-ro","chart_24h":[0.036179,0.036179],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"bvzicqiyet","event_id":"bvzicqiyet","slug":"will-there-be-over-10000-optimus-ro","question":"Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?","group_item_title":null,"description":"“My prediction is next year we’ll have over a thousand, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla.” \n\nhttps://x.com/SmokeAwayyy/status/1801400924096839732\n\n[tweet]This was a prediction made during the Tesla 2024 Annual Stockholder Meeting. \n\nI take \"working\" to mean autonomously deployed in factories and performing productive labor.\n\nUpdate 2025-06-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified their interpretation of productive labor:\n\nRobots dancing as entertainers for the human factory workforce would be considered as performing productive labor.\n\nUpdate 2026-03-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A robot counts as 'working at Tesla' if it meets all of the following:\n\nDeployed on a Tesla facility floor in a capacity intended to contribute to operations\n\nSwitched on and active (not just stacked in a corner)\n\nRobots still being supervised, still learning, or spending some time on training still count\n\nRobots solely in R&D labs and never deployed to an operational facility do not count\n\nThe 10,000 threshold must be met all at once, not cumulatively\n\nUpdate 2026-03-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A scenario where robots must recharge (e.g., half recharging at any given time) still counts toward the 10,000 threshold, as long as 10,000 are deployed at once in a qualifying capacity.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/DavidFWatson/nwkp5jbedu.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.036179,0.963821],"probability":0.036179,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-10-13T21:55:01.446000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T13:29:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":30903.161370762053,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":40.12538528442383,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T16:53:17.571545Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-07T14:38:03.395839Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/DavidFWatson/will-there-be-over-10000-optimus-ro","event_title":"Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?","chart_24h":[0.036179,0.036179]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/bvzicqiyet","as_of":"2026-06-10T12:33:23.984900Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?\" — top market at 4% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}