{"source":"manifold","id":"c0RAHpOtHGvcTkhSkDN6","ticker":null,"slug":"will-there-be-fighting-in-crimea-as","title":"Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?","description":"The market resolves Yes if there is a front in Crimea at any stage before a peace settlement or a permanent ceasefire is established.\n\nThis is only for fighting on land between conventional armies. Bombing, long-range artillery, sabotage activities, uprisings, assassinations etc. will not count as fighting.\n\nBy Crimea I mean the borders of the administrative unit as seen by both Ukraine and Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea.\n\nSee also:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/StanPinsent/will-there-be-fighting-in-crimea-th)","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F4rnBUDDpVI.png?alt=media&token=48f09156-1d67-4dcb-bbfe-fd260374fbfd","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-14T13:07:32.029000Z","end_date":"2030-12-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":22520.174620465175,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.198272705078125,"liquidity":1040.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.115813,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?","top_outcome_probability":0.115813,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-07-13T14:25:17.027673Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-13T14:25:17.027673Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/PS/will-there-be-fighting-in-crimea-as","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"c0RAHpOtHGvcTkhSkDN6","event_id":"c0RAHpOtHGvcTkhSkDN6","slug":"will-there-be-fighting-in-crimea-as","question":"Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?","group_item_title":null,"description":"The market resolves Yes if there is a front in Crimea at any stage before a peace settlement or a permanent ceasefire is established.\n\nThis is only for fighting on land between conventional armies. Bombing, long-range artillery, sabotage activities, uprisings, assassinations etc. will not count as fighting.\n\nBy Crimea I mean the borders of the administrative unit as seen by both Ukraine and Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea.\n\nSee also:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/StanPinsent/will-there-be-fighting-in-crimea-th)","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F4rnBUDDpVI.png?alt=media&token=48f09156-1d67-4dcb-bbfe-fd260374fbfd","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.115813,0.884187],"probability":0.115813,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-14T13:07:32.029000Z","end_date":"2030-12-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":22520.174620465175,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.198272705078125,"liquidity":1040.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-08-28T18:56:40.901644Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-13T14:22:29.817150Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/PS/will-there-be-fighting-in-crimea-as","event_title":"Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/c0RAHpOtHGvcTkhSkDN6","as_of":"2026-09-09T03:23:00.900695Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?\" — top market at 12% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}