{"source":"manifold","id":"c8dUdt9SgO","ticker":"c8dUdt9SgO","slug":"who-is-behind-ox-alpha-the-mysterio","title":"Who is behind Ox Alpha, the mysterious new frontier LLM on OpenRouter?","description":"“Ox Alpha,” an anonymous “stealth” model that appeared on OpenRouter earlier today (August 20, 2026). \n\nIt’s a reasoning model positioned for coding, sustained agentic work, and production use, with a 1,048,576-token context window, a 131,072-token output cap, and text/image/video input — listed as stealth/ox-alpha on OpenRouter. It’s free during this preview window, with the operator claiming near-unlimited rate limits and 100 trillion tokens/day of serving capacity.\n\nThere is some buzz on Twitter that it is frontier or even better at coding.\n\nSee also: @/Sketchy/what-will-the-release-name-of-ox-al ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-21T06:52:53.490000Z","end_date":"2026-08-28T06:46:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":42442.20939888388,"volume_24hr":45112.475030919966,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":100.0,"normalized_volume":42.0648078918457,"liquidity":12100.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"tags":[],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Z.ai / Zhipu AI (GLM company)","top_outcome_probability":0.852535,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.051952,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3819.4742907091277,"updated_at":"2026-08-22T04:40:14.844566Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-22T04:40:14.844566Z","added_at":"2026-08-22T00:26:42.559322Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/who-is-behind-ox-alpha-the-mysterio","chart_24h":[38123.8762469573,39182.09940296477,43810.82797209644,44978.475030919966,45078.475030919966],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"SlQqcCRL0L","event_id":"c8dUdt9SgO","slug":null,"question":"Z.ai / Zhipu AI (GLM company)","group_item_title":"Z.ai / Zhipu AI (GLM company)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.852535,0.147465],"probability":0.852535,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-21T06:52:53.491000Z","end_date":"2026-08-28T06:46:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":27929.195789931935,"volume_24hr":4622.644962380495,"prob_24h_change":0.051952,"volume_24h_change":3819.4742907091277,"normalized_vol_24hr":69.08580017089844,"normalized_volume":38.822505950927734,"liquidity":204.12414523193152,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"countries":["China"],"updated_at":"2026-08-22T04:40:22.201748Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-22T04:40:15.327547Z","added_at":"2026-08-22T00:26:43.443756Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/who-is-behind-ox-alpha-the-mysterio","event_title":"Who is behind Ox Alpha, the mysterious new frontier LLM on OpenRouter?","chart_24h":[0.8,0.795296,0.84934,0.850219,0.851952]},{"source":"manifold","id":"nhtyyLAzyn","event_id":"c8dUdt9SgO","slug":null,"question":"Other","group_item_title":"Other","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.070163,0.929837],"probability":0.070163,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-21T06:52:53.491000Z","end_date":"2026-08-28T06:46:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3480.55199034862,"volume_24hr":355.05248433610814,"prob_24h_change":-0.00748299999999999,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":33.65843200683594,"normalized_volume":24.641942977905273,"liquidity":731.1070964713575,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-22T04:40:22.201748Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-22T04:40:15.327547Z","added_at":"2026-08-22T00:26:43.443756Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/who-is-behind-ox-alpha-the-mysterio","event_title":"Who is behind Ox Alpha, the mysterious new frontier LLM on OpenRouter?","chart_24h":[0.077939,0.098912,0.07177,0.071328,0.070456]},{"source":"manifold","id":"EnqQENQO0R","event_id":"c8dUdt9SgO","slug":null,"question":"OpenAI","group_item_title":"OpenAI","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.006672,0.993328],"probability":0.006672,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-21T06:52:53.491000Z","end_date":"2026-08-28T06:46:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":300.3716444472933,"volume_24hr":42.0,"prob_24h_change":0.005483,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.794929504394531,"normalized_volume":12.073202133178711,"liquidity":204.12414523193152,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-22T04:40:22.201748Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-22T04:40:15.327547Z","added_at":"2026-08-22T00:26:43.443756Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/who-is-behind-ox-alpha-the-mysterio","event_title":"Who is behind Ox Alpha, the mysterious new frontier LLM on OpenRouter?","chart_24h":[0.001222,0.010229,0.006855,0.006805,0.006705]},{"source":"manifold","id":"22nSncCISL","event_id":"c8dUdt9SgO","slug":null,"question":"xAI / Cursor","group_item_title":"xAI / Cursor","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.048755,0.951245],"probability":0.048755,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-21T15:23:12.576000Z","end_date":"2026-08-28T06:46:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7949.717543835616,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.03262999999999999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.884998321533203,"liquidity":731.1070964713575,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-22T04:40:15.327547Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-22T04:40:15.327547Z","added_at":"2026-08-22T00:26:43.443756Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/who-is-behind-ox-alpha-the-mysterio","event_title":"Who is behind Ox Alpha, the mysterious new frontier LLM on OpenRouter?","chart_24h":[0.08156,0.065428,0.049712,0.04945,0.04893]},{"source":"manifold","id":"t9RQllqCP6","event_id":"c8dUdt9SgO","slug":null,"question":"Xiaomi (MiMo company)","group_item_title":"Xiaomi (MiMo company)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.013097,0.986903],"probability":0.013097,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-21T06:52:53.491000Z","end_date":"2026-08-28T06:46:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1601.937808740165,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.014506,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":20.1774845123291,"liquidity":204.12414523193152,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"countries":["China"],"updated_at":"2026-08-22T04:40:15.327547Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-22T04:40:15.327547Z","added_at":"2026-08-22T00:26:43.443756Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/who-is-behind-ox-alpha-the-mysterio","event_title":"Who is behind Ox Alpha, the mysterious new frontier LLM on OpenRouter?","chart_24h":[0.027666,0.019812,0.013447,0.013351,0.01316]},{"source":"manifold","id":"glLAQslZuz","event_id":"c8dUdt9SgO","slug":null,"question":"Google","group_item_title":"Google","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.003194,0.996806],"probability":0.003194,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-21T15:08:26.448000Z","end_date":"2026-08-28T06:46:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":843.9415865245958,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.0009729999999999995,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":16.827808380126953,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-22T04:40:15.327547Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-22T04:40:15.327547Z","added_at":"2026-08-22T00:26:43.443756Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/who-is-behind-ox-alpha-the-mysterio","event_title":"Who is behind Ox Alpha, the mysterious new frontier LLM on OpenRouter?","chart_24h":[0.004173,0.00373,0.003228,0.003219,0.0032]},{"source":"manifold","id":"s02ss6l66y","event_id":"c8dUdt9SgO","slug":null,"question":"Moonshot AI (Kimi company)","group_item_title":"Moonshot AI (Kimi company)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.002612,0.997388],"probability":0.002612,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-21T06:52:53.491000Z","end_date":"2026-08-28T06:46:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":65.0,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.0009359999999999998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":6.503672122955322,"liquidity":204.12414523193152,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"countries":["China"],"updated_at":"2026-08-22T04:40:15.327547Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-22T04:40:15.327547Z","added_at":"2026-08-22T00:26:43.443756Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/who-is-behind-ox-alpha-the-mysterio","event_title":"Who is behind Ox Alpha, the mysterious new frontier LLM on OpenRouter?","chart_24h":[0.003554,0.003121,0.002644,0.002635,0.002618]},{"source":"manifold","id":"qRz6ycAzU2","event_id":"c8dUdt9SgO","slug":null,"question":"Alibaba (Qwen company)","group_item_title":"Alibaba (Qwen company)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.002031,0.997969],"probability":0.002031,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-21T06:52:53.491000Z","end_date":"2026-08-28T06:46:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":15.0,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.000631,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":2.848217010498047,"liquidity":204.12414523193152,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"countries":["China"],"updated_at":"2026-08-22T04:40:15.327547Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-22T04:40:15.327547Z","added_at":"2026-08-22T00:26:43.443756Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/who-is-behind-ox-alpha-the-mysterio","event_title":"Who is behind Ox Alpha, the mysterious new frontier LLM on OpenRouter?","chart_24h":[0.002666,0.002378,0.002053,0.002047,0.002035]},{"source":"manifold","id":"qQnC6Ed0Oy","event_id":"c8dUdt9SgO","slug":null,"question":"Anthropic","group_item_title":"Anthropic","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.00094,0.99906],"probability":0.00094,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-21T06:52:53.491000Z","end_date":"2026-08-28T06:46:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":256.49303505564956,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.00027900000000000006,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.416775703430176,"liquidity":204.12414523193152,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-22T04:40:15.327547Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-22T04:40:15.327547Z","added_at":"2026-08-22T00:26:43.443756Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/who-is-behind-ox-alpha-the-mysterio","event_title":"Who is behind Ox Alpha, the mysterious new frontier LLM on OpenRouter?","chart_24h":[0.001221,0.001094,0.00095,0.000947,0.000942]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/c8dUdt9SgO","as_of":"2026-08-22T04:43:28.955101Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Who is behind Ox Alpha, the mysterious new frontier LLM on OpenRouter?\" — top market at 85% probability across 9 outcomes","source_url":null}}