{"source":"manifold","id":"cd5hUN9EZO","ticker":null,"slug":"spiderman-brand-new-day-passes-avat","title":"\"Spider-Man: Brand New Day\" passes \"Avatar: The Way of Water\"? (>2.3B worldwide)","description":"At the time of market creation, \"Avatar: The Way of Water\" is the 3rd highest grossing movie of all time, with worldwide gross of $2,334,484,620. \n\nThis market resolves YES if \"Spider Man: Brand New Day\" grosses >$2,334,484,620 worldwide during its initial theatrical run, and NO otherwise. The resolution source will be BoxOfficeMojo.\n\nI may resolve early if it becomes overwhelmingly clear that BND is not grossing enough anymore to pass the threshold.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-03T15:16:17.611000Z","end_date":"2026-10-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21783.515744164793,"volume_24hr":6389.459287415798,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":85.95303344726562,"normalized_volume":37.40768051147461,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Culture"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.837035,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"\"Spider-Man: Brand New Day\" passes \"Avatar: The Way of Water\"? (>2.3B worldwide)","top_outcome_probability":0.837035,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.06655699999999998,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-4082.5473093069804,"updated_at":"2026-08-10T22:46:09.805805Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-10T22:46:09.805805Z","added_at":"2026-08-10T16:50:04.502442Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/spiderman-brand-new-day-passes-avat","chart_24h":[0.903592,0.906378,0.906378,0.906378,0.906378,0.884075,0.88415],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"cd5hUN9EZO","event_id":"cd5hUN9EZO","slug":"spiderman-brand-new-day-passes-avat","question":"\"Spider-Man: Brand New Day\" passes \"Avatar: The Way of Water\"? (>2.3B worldwide)","group_item_title":null,"description":"At the time of market creation, \"Avatar: The Way of Water\" is the 3rd highest grossing movie of all time, with worldwide gross of $2,334,484,620. \n\nThis market resolves YES if \"Spider Man: Brand New Day\" grosses >$2,334,484,620 worldwide during its initial theatrical run, and NO otherwise. The resolution source will be BoxOfficeMojo.\n\nI may resolve early if it becomes overwhelmingly clear that BND is not grossing enough anymore to pass the threshold.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.837035,0.162965],"probability":0.837035,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-03T15:16:17.611000Z","end_date":"2026-10-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21783.515744164793,"volume_24hr":6389.459287415798,"prob_24h_change":-0.06655699999999998,"volume_24h_change":-4082.5473093069804,"normalized_vol_24hr":85.95303344726562,"normalized_volume":37.40768051147461,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Culture"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-10T22:48:15.414711Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-10T22:44:46.571015Z","added_at":"2026-08-10T16:50:04.502442Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/spiderman-brand-new-day-passes-avat","event_title":"\"Spider-Man: Brand New Day\" passes \"Avatar: The Way of Water\"? (>2.3B worldwide)","chart_24h":[0.903592,0.906378,0.906378,0.906378,0.906378,0.884075,0.88415]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/cd5hUN9EZO","as_of":"2026-08-10T22:51:36.646895Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"\"Spider-Man: Brand New Day\" passes \"Avatar: The Way of Water\"? (>2.3B worldwide)\" — top market at 84% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}