{"source":"manifold","id":"cfwgy0xxmw","ticker":null,"slug":"will-closed-source-software-go-exti","title":"Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)?","description":"I have seen predictions that closed source software will be \"extinct\" within five years (August 14, 2029). Will that happen?\n\nResolves based on my personal judgment, as to whether closed source software is \"extinct\" within five years. Can resolve early. Since this is a subjective question, I will not bet in it.\n\n","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Gabrielle/8t625rxnea.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-08-14T15:29:22.895000Z","end_date":"2029-08-15T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10046.793567014845,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.87812614440918,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ai","technology-default","openai","internet"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.060881,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)?","top_outcome_probability":0.060881,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-closed-source-software-go-exti","chart_24h":[0.060881,0.060881],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"cfwgy0xxmw","event_id":"cfwgy0xxmw","slug":"will-closed-source-software-go-exti","question":"Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)?","group_item_title":null,"description":"I have seen predictions that closed source software will be \"extinct\" within five years (August 14, 2029). Will that happen?\n\nResolves based on my personal judgment, as to whether closed source software is \"extinct\" within five years. Can resolve early. Since this is a subjective question, I will not bet in it.\n\n","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Gabrielle/8t625rxnea.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.060881,0.939119],"probability":0.060881,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-08-14T15:29:22.895000Z","end_date":"2029-08-15T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10046.793567014845,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.87812614440918,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-06T18:50:38.552278Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-closed-source-software-go-exti","event_title":"Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)?","chart_24h":[0.060881,0.060881]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/cfwgy0xxmw","as_of":"2026-06-10T11:36:18.971298Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)?\" — top market at 6% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}