{"source":"manifold","id":"ckEcKJJmfK6MunQmaSgc","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-get-agi-before-2028","title":"Will we get AGI before 2028?","description":"AGI defined as transformative, at least human-level, but potentially superhuman AI, capable of doing at least any cognitive task humans can do, at least at human level.\n\nRelated to: https://manifold.markets/MarioCannistra/will-we-get-agi-before-2027\n\n[link preview]","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-08-25T08:38:30.968000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":26315.82832232501,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.8878288269043,"liquidity":1445.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.198979,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we get AGI before 2028?","top_outcome_probability":0.198979,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MarioCannistra/will-we-get-agi-before-2028","chart_24h":[0.198979,0.198979],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"ckEcKJJmfK6MunQmaSgc","event_id":"ckEcKJJmfK6MunQmaSgc","slug":"will-we-get-agi-before-2028","question":"Will we get AGI before 2028?","group_item_title":null,"description":"AGI defined as transformative, at least human-level, but potentially superhuman AI, capable of doing at least any cognitive task humans can do, at least at human level.\n\nRelated to: https://manifold.markets/MarioCannistra/will-we-get-agi-before-2027\n\n[link preview]","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.198979,0.801021],"probability":0.198979,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-08-25T08:38:30.968000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":26315.82832232501,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.8878288269043,"liquidity":1445.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:36:25.491276Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-12T01:43:48.242707Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MarioCannistra/will-we-get-agi-before-2028","event_title":"Will we get AGI before 2028?","chart_24h":[0.198979,0.198979]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/ckEcKJJmfK6MunQmaSgc","as_of":"2026-06-10T10:29:05.547242Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will we get AGI before 2028?\" — top market at 20% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}