{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/cl6ic5AtFwHTkDcDIRqq","as_of":"2026-10-19T14:49:16.980704Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before basic AGI?\" — 35% as of 2026-06-03 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/cl6ic5AtFwHTkDcDIRqq","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-2c7a70730100"},"source":"manifold","id":"cl6ic5AtFwHTkDcDIRqq","ticker":null,"slug":"will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-2c7a70730100","title":"Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before basic AGI?","description":"including tests; metaculus definition ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fl-X0surhhp.png?alt=media&token=f3449b34-4cda-4379-a2e7-40aa68c2e820","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-04-05T13:09:10.663000Z","end_date":"2101-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6267.722844771327,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.124956130981445,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.350502,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before basic AGI?","top_outcome_probability":0.350502,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-2c7a70730100","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"cl6ic5AtFwHTkDcDIRqq","event_id":"cl6ic5AtFwHTkDcDIRqq","slug":"will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-2c7a70730100","question":"Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before basic AGI?","group_item_title":null,"description":"including tests; metaculus definition ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fl-X0surhhp.png?alt=media&token=f3449b34-4cda-4379-a2e7-40aa68c2e820","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.350502,0.649498],"probability":0.350502,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-04-05T13:09:10.663000Z","end_date":"2101-01-01T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":6267.722844771327,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.124956130981445,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T10:19:15.387484Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-2c7a70730100","event_title":"Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before basic AGI?","chart_24h":null}]}