{"source":"manifold","id":"cu6C22IOy2","ticker":null,"slug":"will-anthropic-restore-access-to-fa-dQzO5lRQt8","title":"Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 for US customers by the end of June?","description":"The United States Government has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States.\n\nAnthropic is currently disabling Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all customers.\n\nSee https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access for more.\n\nI will resolve this to YES if Fable 5 is generally available to US customers by the end of June. If Fable is available only on the API but is available to anyone who pays those per-token costs, I will still resolve that as YES.\n\nIf Fable is made available to all customers, regardless of nationality, this will also resolve YES.\n\nSee also: https://manifold.markets/PhilipDowdell/will-anthropic-restore-access-to-fa","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-13T01:36:54.374000Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5033.9087882368185,"volume_24hr":2399.5417694138437,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":48.564273834228516,"normalized_volume":27.264659881591797,"liquidity":100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["anthropic","politics-default","ai","fable","us-govt-ai-policy"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.26,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 for US customers by the end of June?","top_outcome_probability":0.26,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.05942900000000001,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":977.5917101830985,"updated_at":"2026-06-26T02:42:48.153797Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-26T02:42:48.153797Z","added_at":"2026-06-25T18:55:30.039204Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/PhilipDowdell/will-anthropic-restore-access-to-fa-dQzO5lRQt8","chart_24h":[0.319429,0.265167,0.35,0.12,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.334458,0.26],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"cu6C22IOy2","event_id":"cu6C22IOy2","slug":"will-anthropic-restore-access-to-fa-dQzO5lRQt8","question":"Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 for US customers by the end of June?","group_item_title":null,"description":"The United States Government has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States.\n\nAnthropic is currently disabling Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all customers.\n\nSee https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access for more.\n\nI will resolve this to YES if Fable 5 is generally available to US customers by the end of June. If Fable is available only on the API but is available to anyone who pays those per-token costs, I will still resolve that as YES.\n\nIf Fable is made available to all customers, regardless of nationality, this will also resolve YES.\n\nSee also: https://manifold.markets/PhilipDowdell/will-anthropic-restore-access-to-fa","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.26,0.74],"probability":0.26,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-13T01:36:54.374000Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5033.9087882368185,"volume_24hr":2399.5417694138437,"prob_24h_change":-0.05942900000000001,"volume_24h_change":977.5917101830985,"normalized_vol_24hr":52.31117630004883,"normalized_volume":27.264659881591797,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-26T02:42:11.675184Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-26T02:42:11.675184Z","added_at":"2026-06-25T18:55:30.039204Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/PhilipDowdell/will-anthropic-restore-access-to-fa-dQzO5lRQt8","event_title":"Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 for US customers by the end of June?","chart_24h":[0.319429,0.265167,0.35,0.12,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.334458,0.26]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/cu6C22IOy2","as_of":"2026-06-26T02:52:40.266443Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 for US customers by the end of June?\" — top market at 26% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}