{"source":"manifold","id":"cveYb1fseam3CipCO3vd","ticker":null,"slug":"will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4","title":"Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2030?","description":"Resolves as YES if there is a Dyson Sphere around the Sun on January 1st 2030, capable of harnessing at least 1% of its power output. This artificial megastructure must at least be distributed in a ring around the Sun (i.e. it cannot be focused as a single or small (<50) finite number of large structures occupying 1% of the available angles), although it does not necessarily need to include other orbits (e.g. polar). If it occupies a ring around the sun, then both a swarm or a single monolithic structure qualify in the context of this question.\n\nQuestions with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-498a9441b3bf \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4 (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-0b0b9fe48958 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-655a4defd440 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-7ffebd1e0ff5 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-082e239054e0 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-897d2cf9e325 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-51d476bf5275 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-d3e1ad8967f8 \n\nSpace exploration questions:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-4a5c4940b285 \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-76d02d43aa2c \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-d94ab8bbb580 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-78e59fa4805f \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-b7061eeb1c8c \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-80f53d888d58 \n\nOther questions for 2030:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-292c3a01b029@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440 \n\nImage credits: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dyson_Sphere_Render.png\n\nImage source: Image courtesy of Kevin M. Gill on Flickr, licensed under CC BY 2.0. Available at: https://flickr.com/photos/53460575@N03/29401385502","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F-id6xGMy_t.png?alt=media&token=81d4268f-2c6c-4782-9a55-9336c90c2c8d","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-22T14:21:55.626000Z","end_date":"2030-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":15121.034851984512,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.76791000366211,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.01,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.01,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T16:32:49.337989Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T16:32:49.337989Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"cveYb1fseam3CipCO3vd","event_id":"cveYb1fseam3CipCO3vd","slug":"will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4","question":"Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves as YES if there is a Dyson Sphere around the Sun on January 1st 2030, capable of harnessing at least 1% of its power output. This artificial megastructure must at least be distributed in a ring around the Sun (i.e. it cannot be focused as a single or small (<50) finite number of large structures occupying 1% of the available angles), although it does not necessarily need to include other orbits (e.g. polar). If it occupies a ring around the sun, then both a swarm or a single monolithic structure qualify in the context of this question.\n\nQuestions with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-498a9441b3bf \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4 (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-0b0b9fe48958 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-655a4defd440 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-7ffebd1e0ff5 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-082e239054e0 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-897d2cf9e325 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-51d476bf5275 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-d3e1ad8967f8 \n\nSpace exploration questions:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-4a5c4940b285 \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-76d02d43aa2c \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-d94ab8bbb580 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-78e59fa4805f \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-b7061eeb1c8c \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-80f53d888d58 \n\nOther questions for 2030:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-292c3a01b029@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440 \n\nImage credits: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dyson_Sphere_Render.png\n\nImage source: Image courtesy of Kevin M. Gill on Flickr, licensed under CC BY 2.0. 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