{"source":"manifold","id":"cyczlIsszn","ticker":null,"slug":"will-russia-gain-more-territory-tha-pO6l85Ug8h","title":"Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in July 2026?","description":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market will resolve YES if, according to a majority of the resolution sources, Russia achieves a net territorial gain in July 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve NO if, according to a majority of the resolution sources, Russia does not achieve a net territorial gain in July 2026.\n\nResolution sources\n\nThe resolution sources are:\n\nBlack Bird Group\n\nAMK Mapping\n\nDivgen\n\nClose date\n\nThis market is set to close at 23:59 UTC on 7 August 2026, although it may resolve sooner.\n\nClarifications\n\nThis market may be voided if a resolution source fails to provide an estimate before the close date.\n\nFor related markets, see my Russia-Ukraine dashboard.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-04T07:13:52.218000Z","end_date":"2026-08-07T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4608.392217066999,"volume_24hr":808.5718109639861,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":39.569881439208984,"normalized_volume":26.681528091430664,"liquidity":198.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.95051,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in July 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.95051,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.18254599999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-711.531197027258,"updated_at":"2026-08-03T21:40:12.596203Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-03T21:40:12.596203Z","added_at":"2026-08-03T08:36:18.740368Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/a_l_e_x/will-russia-gain-more-territory-tha-pO6l85Ug8h","chart_24h":[0.767964,0.767964,0.767964,0.767964,0.767964,0.764789,0.820656,0.820656,0.826277,0.86,0.948014,0.95051,0.95051,0.95051,0.95051,0.95051],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"cyczlIsszn","event_id":"cyczlIsszn","slug":"will-russia-gain-more-territory-tha-pO6l85Ug8h","question":"Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in July 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market will resolve YES if, according to a majority of the resolution sources, Russia achieves a net territorial gain in July 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve NO if, according to a majority of the resolution sources, Russia does not achieve a net territorial gain in July 2026.\n\nResolution sources\n\nThe resolution sources are:\n\nBlack Bird Group\n\nAMK Mapping\n\nDivgen\n\nClose date\n\nThis market is set to close at 23:59 UTC on 7 August 2026, although it may resolve sooner.\n\nClarifications\n\nThis market may be voided if a resolution source fails to provide an estimate before the close date.\n\nFor related markets, see my Russia-Ukraine dashboard.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.95051,0.04949],"probability":0.95051,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-04T07:13:52.218000Z","end_date":"2026-08-07T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4608.392217066999,"volume_24hr":808.5718109639861,"prob_24h_change":0.18254599999999999,"volume_24h_change":-711.531197027258,"normalized_vol_24hr":39.569881439208984,"normalized_volume":26.681528091430664,"liquidity":198.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-08-03T21:39:08.529921Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-03T21:39:08.529921Z","added_at":"2026-08-03T08:36:18.740368Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/a_l_e_x/will-russia-gain-more-territory-tha-pO6l85Ug8h","event_title":"Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in July 2026?","chart_24h":[0.767964,0.767964,0.767964,0.767964,0.767964,0.764789,0.820656,0.820656,0.826277,0.86,0.948014,0.95051,0.95051,0.95051,0.95051,0.95051]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/cyczlIsszn","as_of":"2026-08-03T21:46:02.313432Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in July 2026?\" — top market at 95% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}