{"source":"manifold","id":"dFx5xg9c4mcYSblxazwA","ticker":null,"slug":"will-at-least-25-nations-collaborat","title":"Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?","description":"Discussed briefly in the \"We can do better\" section of Holden Karnofsky's blog post: \"How we could stumble into AI catastrophe\". \n\nResolves positively if:\n\nHolden himself publicly claims that this specific illustrative scenario has already come to pass\n\nMultiple news organizations report generally that AI development standards have been developed and are being enforced internationally \n\nMy personal friends that are most well-acquainted with AI agree with me that this question should resolve positively","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-01-14T01:10:35.768000Z","end_date":"2036-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12333.993062830887,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.83053970336914,"liquidity":1410.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.78442,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?","top_outcome_probability":0.78442,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-09-07T08:58:08.656837Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-07T08:58:08.656837Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldChampion/will-at-least-25-nations-collaborat","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"dFx5xg9c4mcYSblxazwA","event_id":"dFx5xg9c4mcYSblxazwA","slug":"will-at-least-25-nations-collaborat","question":"Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Discussed briefly in the \"We can do better\" section of Holden Karnofsky's blog post: \"How we could stumble into AI catastrophe\". \n\nResolves positively if:\n\nHolden himself publicly claims that this specific illustrative scenario has already come to pass\n\nMultiple news organizations report generally that AI development standards have been developed and are being enforced internationally \n\nMy personal friends that are most well-acquainted with AI agree with me that this question should resolve positively","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.78442,0.21558],"probability":0.78442,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-01-14T01:10:35.768000Z","end_date":"2036-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12333.993062830887,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.83053970336914,"liquidity":1410.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-07T08:57:06.946273Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-07T08:57:06.946273Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldChampion/will-at-least-25-nations-collaborat","event_title":"Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/dFx5xg9c4mcYSblxazwA","as_of":"2026-09-18T22:34:04.147399Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?\" — top market at 78% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}