{"source":"manifold","id":"dISlPtAINQ","ticker":null,"slug":"acx-2026-will-the-composition-of-th","title":"[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?","description":"(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41072)\n\nResolves according to Metaculus resolution.\n\nMetaculus high-level description:\nThis question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2027, any of the following takes place:\n\na sitting US Supreme Court Justice officially leaves office\n\na federal bill that changes the number of seats in the US Supreme Court is enacted, regardless of the effective date.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-06T23:13:06.171000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17826.578915476643,"volume_24hr":139.4915105858313,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":23.739484786987305,"normalized_volume":35.945289611816406,"liquidity":5100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.253503,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.253503,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.013144000000000045,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":104.49151058583129,"updated_at":"2026-07-13T02:52:36.775286Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-13T02:52:36.775286Z","added_at":"2026-07-03T09:19:32.414860Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-the-composition-of-th","chart_24h":[0.266647,0.266647,0.266647,0.266647,0.266647,0.266647,0.266647,0.266647,0.266647,0.266647,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"dISlPtAINQ","event_id":"dISlPtAINQ","slug":"acx-2026-will-the-composition-of-th","question":"[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41072)\n\nResolves according to Metaculus resolution.\n\nMetaculus high-level description:\nThis question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2027, any of the following takes place:\n\na sitting US Supreme Court Justice officially leaves office\n\na federal bill that changes the number of seats in the US Supreme Court is enacted, regardless of the effective date.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.253503,0.746497],"probability":0.253503,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-06T23:13:06.171000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17826.578915476643,"volume_24hr":139.4915105858313,"prob_24h_change":-0.013144000000000045,"volume_24h_change":104.49151058583129,"normalized_vol_24hr":23.739484786987305,"normalized_volume":35.945289611816406,"liquidity":5100.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-13T02:51:50.809196Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-13T02:51:50.809196Z","added_at":"2026-07-03T09:19:32.414860Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-the-composition-of-th","event_title":"[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.266647,0.266647,0.266647,0.266647,0.266647,0.266647,0.266647,0.266647,0.266647,0.266647,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503,0.253503]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/dISlPtAINQ","as_of":"2026-07-13T03:27:51.105349Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?\" — top market at 25% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}