{"source":"manifold","id":"dOtAqyLE22","ticker":null,"slug":"us-acquires-part-of-greenland-in-20","title":"US acquires part of Greenland in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT, the United States acquires sovereignty or primary/exclusive jurisdiction or control over any defined land territory in Greenland through a binding legal instrument (e.g., treaty, enacted legislation, or executive action), including via force. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nOnly binding actions that unambiguously transfer sovereignty or establish primary/exclusive U.S. jurisdiction qualify, even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. Non-binding statements, negotiations, MOUs, basing/access agreements, SOFA/COFA-type arrangements, leases, or commercial concessions do not qualify. Any U.S. rights or control existing at market creation (Jan 7, 2026, 3:11 PT) will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official statements or legal instruments from the U.S., Denmark, or Greenland, with a consensus of credible reporting used if necessary.\n\nUpdate 2026-01-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Extraterritorial military/diplomatic bases:\n\nStandard military bases, embassies, SOFA-style arrangements, basing rights, or access agreements with extraterritorial status → NO\n\nA Guantánamo-style arrangement (binding legal instrument establishing exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction over defined territory where local law does not apply without U.S. consent) → YES\n\nRule of thumb: Access/presence/extraterritorial privileges = NO; Sovereignty or exclusive territorial jurisdiction = YES","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-07T11:13:36.694000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":37539.148803450335,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":41.602962493896484,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.037166,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"US acquires part of Greenland in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.037166,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-15T03:48:59.857964Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-15T03:48:59.857964Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/us-acquires-part-of-greenland-in-20","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"dOtAqyLE22","event_id":"dOtAqyLE22","slug":"us-acquires-part-of-greenland-in-20","question":"US acquires part of Greenland in 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT, the United States acquires sovereignty or primary/exclusive jurisdiction or control over any defined land territory in Greenland through a binding legal instrument (e.g., treaty, enacted legislation, or executive action), including via force. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nOnly binding actions that unambiguously transfer sovereignty or establish primary/exclusive U.S. jurisdiction qualify, even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. Non-binding statements, negotiations, MOUs, basing/access agreements, SOFA/COFA-type arrangements, leases, or commercial concessions do not qualify. Any U.S. rights or control existing at market creation (Jan 7, 2026, 3:11 PT) will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official statements or legal instruments from the U.S., Denmark, or Greenland, with a consensus of credible reporting used if necessary.\n\nUpdate 2026-01-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Extraterritorial military/diplomatic bases:\n\nStandard military bases, embassies, SOFA-style arrangements, basing rights, or access agreements with extraterritorial status → NO\n\nA Guantánamo-style arrangement (binding legal instrument establishing exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction over defined territory where local law does not apply without U.S. consent) → YES\n\nRule of thumb: Access/presence/extraterritorial privileges = NO; Sovereignty or exclusive territorial jurisdiction = YES","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.037166,0.962834],"probability":0.037166,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-07T11:13:36.694000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":37539.148803450335,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":41.602962493896484,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Denmark"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T17:51:05.163848Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-15T03:45:40.347968Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/us-acquires-part-of-greenland-in-20","event_title":"US acquires part of Greenland in 2026?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/dOtAqyLE22","as_of":"2026-07-25T18:05:32.359515Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"US acquires part of Greenland in 2026?\" — top market at 4% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}