{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/dSaVvMLpLbwaLLUGfGfK","as_of":"2026-11-03T23:40:58.529238Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?\" — resolved NO (closed 2026-11-03). https://pdata.world/events/manifold/dSaVvMLpLbwaLLUGfGfK","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/if-trump-wins-will-china-invade-tai"},"source":"manifold","id":"dSaVvMLpLbwaLLUGfGfK","ticker":null,"slug":"if-trump-wins-will-china-invade-tai","title":"Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?","description":"If Trump wins the US 2024 election, will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? For the purpose of this market, an invasion is defined as any military offensive aimed at establishing control over any portion of Taiwan.\n\nThis market resolves N/A if Trump does not win the 2024 election or if China invades Taiwan before the 2024 election.\n\nBiden market: https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/if-biden-wins-will-china-invade-tai\n\nUpdate 2025-12-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A blockade alone would not count as an invasion for the purposes of this market. An invasion requires a military offensive aimed at establishing control over any portion of Taiwan.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2024-03-09T22:01:40.156000Z","end_date":"2026-11-03T20:55:57.918000Z","closed_time":"2026-11-03T20:55:57.918000Z","volume":65358.73295281221,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":45.20333480834961,"liquidity":1195.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":["china","taiwan","donald-trump","china-taiwan-potential-conflict","2024-us-presidential-election"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.01,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?","top_outcome_probability":0.01,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-11-03T21:18:50.901677Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-03T21:18:50.901677Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/if-trump-wins-will-china-invade-tai","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"dSaVvMLpLbwaLLUGfGfK","event_id":"dSaVvMLpLbwaLLUGfGfK","slug":"if-trump-wins-will-china-invade-tai","question":"Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?","group_item_title":null,"description":"If Trump wins the US 2024 election, will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? For the purpose of this market, an invasion is defined as any military offensive aimed at establishing control over any portion of Taiwan.\n\nThis market resolves N/A if Trump does not win the 2024 election or if China invades Taiwan before the 2024 election.\n\nBiden market: https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/if-biden-wins-will-china-invade-tai\n\nUpdate 2025-12-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A blockade alone would not count as an invasion for the purposes of this market. An invasion requires a military offensive aimed at establishing control over any portion of Taiwan.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":null,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2024-03-09T22:01:40.156000Z","end_date":"2026-11-03T20:55:57.918000Z","closed_time":"2026-11-03T20:55:57.918000Z","result":"NO","volume":65358.73295281221,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":45.20333480834961,"liquidity":1195.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["China","Taiwan"],"updated_at":"2026-11-03T21:18:49.130998Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-03T21:18:49.130998Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/if-trump-wins-will-china-invade-tai","event_title":"Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?","chart_24h":null}]}