{"source":"manifold","id":"dgQ0098AAO","ticker":"dgQ0098AAO","slug":"how-will-trumps-second-term-end","title":"How will trump’s second term end?","description":"This question is intended to be comprehensive for all possible ways trump’s second term could end.\n\nUpdate 2025-04-28 (PST): - If Trump is impeached and then resigns before or during the Senate trial, the market will be resolved as resigns. (AI summary of creator comment)\n\nUpdate 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Trump tries to run for a third term and fails (e.g. is prevented from being placed on the ballot by a court decision), the market will resolve as \"runs and loses\".","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-04-19T15:44:00.198000Z","end_date":"2029-01-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":13428.749178077827,"volume_24hr":10.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.447427272796631,"normalized_volume":33.87906265258789,"liquidity":325.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["politics-default","us-politics","donald-trump","trumps-second-term","us-democracy"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"He declines to run a third time and steps down","top_outcome_probability":0.651903,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.011902999999999997,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":10.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T02:05:51.347742Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T02:05:51.347742Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/lalaithion/how-will-trumps-second-term-end","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"OsECccUnhu","event_id":"dgQ0098AAO","slug":null,"question":"He declines to run a third time and steps down","group_item_title":"He declines to run a third time and steps down","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.651903,0.348097],"probability":0.651903,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-04-19T15:44:00.199000Z","end_date":"2029-01-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1088.9121871943903,"volume_24hr":10.0,"prob_24h_change":0.011902999999999997,"volume_24h_change":10.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.549809455871582,"normalized_volume":18.34168815612793,"liquidity":41.666666666666664,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:23.872546Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/lalaithion/how-will-trumps-second-term-end","event_title":"How will trump’s second term end?","chart_24h":[0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.651903,0.651903,0.651903,0.651903,0.651903,0.651903,0.651903,0.651903,0.651903,0.651903,0.651903,0.651903,0.651903,0.651903,0.651903,0.651903,0.651903,0.651903,0.651903]},{"source":"manifold","id":"OcLqn9ECOP","event_id":"dgQ0098AAO","slug":null,"question":"He will die in office","group_item_title":"He will die in office","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.11,0.89],"probability":0.11,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-04-19T15:44:00.199000Z","end_date":"2029-01-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3106.00763899737,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":24.247745513916016,"liquidity":41.666666666666664,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/lalaithion/how-will-trumps-second-term-end","event_title":"How will trump’s second term end?","chart_24h":[0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11]},{"source":"manifold","id":"g29S22yZcO","event_id":"dgQ0098AAO","slug":null,"question":"He will be impeached and removed from office by the Senate","group_item_title":"He will be impeached and removed from office by the Senate","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.053004,0.946996],"probability":0.053004,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-04-19T15:44:00.199000Z","end_date":"2029-01-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1439.7107920535502,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.007705999999999998,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":19.834470748901367,"liquidity":41.666666666666664,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/lalaithion/how-will-trumps-second-term-end","event_title":"How will trump’s second term end?","chart_24h":[0.06071,0.06071,0.06071,0.06071,0.06071,0.06071,0.06071,0.053004,0.053004,0.053004,0.053004,0.053004,0.053004,0.053004,0.053004,0.053004,0.053004,0.053004,0.053004,0.053004,0.053004,0.053004,0.053004,0.053004,0.053004,0.053004]},{"source":"manifold","id":"UnnQsg5CSn","event_id":"dgQ0098AAO","slug":null,"question":"A coup occurs, and his faction loses","group_item_title":"A coup occurs, and his faction loses","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.04,0.96],"probability":0.04,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-04-19T15:44:00.199000Z","end_date":"2029-01-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":33.01774783714298,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":4.66431999206543,"liquidity":41.666666666666664,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/lalaithion/how-will-trumps-second-term-end","event_title":"How will trump’s second term end?","chart_24h":[0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04]},{"source":"manifold","id":"6sEuQnuN68","event_id":"dgQ0098AAO","slug":null,"question":"Other","group_item_title":"Other","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.03,0.97],"probability":0.03,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-04-19T15:44:00.199000Z","end_date":"2029-01-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":20.265058012523582,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":3.5044169425964355,"liquidity":24.5089234159327,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/lalaithion/how-will-trumps-second-term-end","event_title":"How will trump’s second term end?","chart_24h":[0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03]},{"source":"manifold","id":"82ntutNdCQ","event_id":"dgQ0098AAO","slug":null,"question":"Trump seeks a third term via a position in the presidential succession, and it fails","group_item_title":"Trump seeks a third term via a position in the presidential succession, and it fails","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.02,0.98],"probability":0.02,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-04-23T22:29:10.819000Z","end_date":"2029-01-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":57.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":6.182344436645508,"liquidity":20.966430582446044,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/lalaithion/how-will-trumps-second-term-end","event_title":"How will trump’s second term end?","chart_24h":[0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02]},{"source":"manifold","id":"SLhP6PUL6l","event_id":"dgQ0098AAO","slug":null,"question":"He will be legally removed via non-impeachment or election means (e.g. the 25th, a new amendment, etc.)","group_item_title":"He will be legally removed via non-impeachment or election means (e.g. the 25th, a new amendment, etc.)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.02,0.98],"probability":0.02,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-04-19T15:44:00.199000Z","end_date":"2029-01-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":370.2462227354975,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":13.127734184265137,"liquidity":41.666666666666664,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/lalaithion/how-will-trumps-second-term-end","event_title":"How will trump’s second term end?","chart_24h":[0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02]},{"source":"manifold","id":"pdg558sCUu","event_id":"dgQ0098AAO","slug":null,"question":"He resigns before the end of his term","group_item_title":"He resigns before the end of his term","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.02,0.98],"probability":0.02,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-04-28T16:15:24.899000Z","end_date":"2029-01-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":113.8132840886152,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.0009249999999999987,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.436627388000488,"liquidity":24.5089234159327,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/lalaithion/how-will-trumps-second-term-end","event_title":"How will trump’s second term end?","chart_24h":[0.020925,0.020925,0.020925,0.020925,0.020925,0.020925,0.020925,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02]},{"source":"manifold","id":"5SytSyL5cc","event_id":"dgQ0098AAO","slug":null,"question":"He runs in and loses the next election and steps down","group_item_title":"He runs in and loses the next election and steps down","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.017337,0.982663],"probability":0.017337,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-04-19T15:44:00.199000Z","end_date":"2029-01-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11.942474705867834,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.0014789999999999977,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":2.458446979522705,"liquidity":41.666666666666664,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/lalaithion/how-will-trumps-second-term-end","event_title":"How will trump’s second term end?","chart_24h":[0.018816,0.018816,0.018816,0.018816,0.018816,0.018816,0.018816,0.017337,0.017337,0.017337,0.017337,0.017337,0.017337,0.017337,0.017337,0.017337,0.017337,0.017337,0.017337,0.017337,0.017337,0.017337,0.017337,0.017337,0.017337,0.017337]},{"source":"manifold","id":"lLnny6Ly0Z","event_id":"dgQ0098AAO","slug":null,"question":"A coup occurs, and his faction wins","group_item_title":"A coup occurs, and his faction wins","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.013634,0.986366],"probability":0.013634,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-04-19T15:44:00.199000Z","end_date":"2029-01-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17.261380085320248,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.001030999999999999,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":3.163991928100586,"liquidity":41.666666666666664,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/lalaithion/how-will-trumps-second-term-end","event_title":"How will trump’s second term end?","chart_24h":[0.014665,0.014665,0.014665,0.014665,0.014665,0.014665,0.014665,0.013634,0.013634,0.013634,0.013634,0.013634,0.013634,0.013634,0.013634,0.013634,0.013634,0.013634,0.013634,0.013634,0.013634,0.013634,0.013634,0.013634,0.013634,0.013634]},{"source":"manifold","id":"zU0sy65h0q","event_id":"dgQ0098AAO","slug":null,"question":"Trump seeks a third term via a position in the presidential succession, and it works","group_item_title":"Trump seeks a third term via a position in the presidential succession, and it works","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-04-23T22:27:44.407000Z","end_date":"2029-01-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":58.52656463219764,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":6.261709690093994,"liquidity":20.3592214254506,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/lalaithion/how-will-trumps-second-term-end","event_title":"How will trump’s second term end?","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01]},{"source":"manifold","id":"A9qAS8csU5","event_id":"dgQ0098AAO","slug":null,"question":"He will be elected to a third term","group_item_title":"He will be elected to a third term","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.007062,0.992938],"probability":0.007062,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-04-19T15:44:00.199000Z","end_date":"2029-01-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6.456242661018981,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.00038100000000000026,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":1.5135213136672974,"liquidity":41.666666666666664,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/lalaithion/how-will-trumps-second-term-end","event_title":"How will trump’s second term end?","chart_24h":[0.007443,0.007443,0.007443,0.007443,0.007443,0.007443,0.007443,0.007062,0.007062,0.007062,0.007062,0.007062,0.007062,0.007062,0.007062,0.007062,0.007062,0.007062,0.007062,0.007062,0.007062,0.007062,0.007062,0.007062,0.007062,0.007062]},{"source":"manifold","id":"RdzygNIZNt","event_id":"dgQ0098AAO","slug":null,"question":"The US ceases to exist","group_item_title":"The US ceases to exist","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.007059,0.992941],"probability":0.007059,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-04-19T15:44:00.199000Z","end_date":"2029-01-26T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":375.31076926684995,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.00038199999999999953,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":13.187928199768066,"liquidity":41.666666666666664,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:03:32.028994Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T19:02:01.845467Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/lalaithion/how-will-trumps-second-term-end","event_title":"How will trump’s second term end?","chart_24h":[0.007441,0.007441,0.007441,0.007441,0.007441,0.007441,0.007441,0.007059,0.007059,0.007059,0.007059,0.007059,0.007059,0.007059,0.007059,0.007059,0.007059,0.007059,0.007059,0.007059,0.007059,0.007059,0.007059,0.007059,0.007059,0.007059]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/dgQ0098AAO","as_of":"2026-07-25T19:10:18.631622Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"How will trump’s second term end?\" — top market at 65% probability across 13 outcomes","source_url":null}}