{"source":"manifold","id":"dgfhEfuYxLHFBpV4zsKX","ticker":null,"slug":"will-there-be-a-oneperson-unicorn-b","title":"Will there be a one-person unicorn by 2030?","description":"The outcome is true if by the end of 2030 a public company achieves the market cap of 1 billion dollars while having only one funder and employee. Or a one-person private company raises enough money that places it at a valuation above 1B, reported in a reputable news source.\n\nhttps://fortune.com/2024/02/04/sam-altman-one-person-unicorn-silicon-valley-founder-myth/\n\nFor the purpose of this market and to ensure that the company is not just a scam,with \"enough money\" we mean over 10$ million.\n\nUpdate 2025-08-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Employee is meant in the legal sense.\n\nExternal consultants/contractors are allowed and do not count as employees.\n\nOnly one actual employee is permitted; additional employees are not allowed.\n\nUpdate 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A company does not need to go public or raise private capital to resolve True. $1.8 billion in sales would be considered sufficient to value a company above $1B for resolution purposes.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/SimoneRomeo%2Fdf7ea7f2a5ad.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-06T10:41:10.594000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T15:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14122.203016234562,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.27592849731445,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Finance"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.420864,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will there be a one-person unicorn by 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.420864,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-07T14:40:07.566218Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-07T14:40:07.566218Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/SimoneRomeo/will-there-be-a-oneperson-unicorn-b","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"dgfhEfuYxLHFBpV4zsKX","event_id":"dgfhEfuYxLHFBpV4zsKX","slug":"will-there-be-a-oneperson-unicorn-b","question":"Will there be a one-person unicorn by 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"The outcome is true if by the end of 2030 a public company achieves the market cap of 1 billion dollars while having only one funder and employee. Or a one-person private company raises enough money that places it at a valuation above 1B, reported in a reputable news source.\n\nhttps://fortune.com/2024/02/04/sam-altman-one-person-unicorn-silicon-valley-founder-myth/\n\nFor the purpose of this market and to ensure that the company is not just a scam,with \"enough money\" we mean over 10$ million.\n\nUpdate 2025-08-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Employee is meant in the legal sense.\n\nExternal consultants/contractors are allowed and do not count as employees.\n\nOnly one actual employee is permitted; additional employees are not allowed.\n\nUpdate 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A company does not need to go public or raise private capital to resolve True. $1.8 billion in sales would be considered sufficient to value a company above $1B for resolution purposes.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/SimoneRomeo%2Fdf7ea7f2a5ad.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.420864,0.579136],"probability":0.420864,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-06T10:41:10.594000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T15:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14122.203016234562,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.27592849731445,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T16:53:17.571545Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-07T14:38:03.395839Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/SimoneRomeo/will-there-be-a-oneperson-unicorn-b","event_title":"Will there be a one-person unicorn by 2030?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/dgfhEfuYxLHFBpV4zsKX","as_of":"2026-06-10T16:48:06.359907Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will there be a one-person unicorn by 2030?\" — top market at 42% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}