{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/dokghehBHkxQltQlscCF","as_of":"2026-11-04T00:38:40.696809Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"By 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?\" — 5% as of 2026-10-29 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/dokghehBHkxQltQlscCF","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/DismalScientist/by-2025-over-60-of-americans-will-b"},"source":"manifold","id":"dokghehBHkxQltQlscCF","ticker":null,"slug":"by-2025-over-60-of-americans-will-b","title":"By 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?","description":"Based on Gallup surveys. 33% said aliens in 2019. 41% said aliens in 2022.\n\nCriteria: Resolves based on first post-January 1st, 2025  Gallup survey asking  \"We have a question about unidentified flying objects, also known as UFOs. Which comes closer to your view -- [some UFOs have been alien spacecraft visiting Earth from other planets or galaxies, (or) all UFO sightings can be explained by human activity on Earth or natural phenomenon]?\" https://news.gallup.com/poll/350096/americans-believe-ufos.aspx\n\nUpdate 2025-11-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Gallup never polls this question again, the market will resolve N/A.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Ffg12gjIAZT.png?alt=media&token=1d08370b-bd1b-4ebf-be46-6be171752250","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-12-21T16:28:25.876000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8265.98231772952,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.916170120239258,"liquidity":1395.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.054307,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"By 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?","top_outcome_probability":0.054307,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-29T23:20:08.696287Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T23:20:08.696287Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/DismalScientist/by-2025-over-60-of-americans-will-b","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"dokghehBHkxQltQlscCF","event_id":"dokghehBHkxQltQlscCF","slug":"by-2025-over-60-of-americans-will-b","question":"By 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Based on Gallup surveys. 33% said aliens in 2019. 41% said aliens in 2022.\n\nCriteria: Resolves based on first post-January 1st, 2025  Gallup survey asking  \"We have a question about unidentified flying objects, also known as UFOs. Which comes closer to your view -- [some UFOs have been alien spacecraft visiting Earth from other planets or galaxies, (or) all UFO sightings can be explained by human activity on Earth or natural phenomenon]?\" https://news.gallup.com/poll/350096/americans-believe-ufos.aspx\n\nUpdate 2025-11-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Gallup never polls this question again, the market will resolve N/A.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Ffg12gjIAZT.png?alt=media&token=1d08370b-bd1b-4ebf-be46-6be171752250","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.054307,0.945693],"probability":0.054307,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-12-21T16:28:25.876000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":8265.98231772952,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.916170120239258,"liquidity":1395.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T23:19:11.535741Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T23:19:11.535741Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/DismalScientist/by-2025-over-60-of-americans-will-b","event_title":"By 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?","chart_24h":null}]}