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The figure must also:\n\nHave a Wikipedia page\n\nHave at least 5 news articles centrally mentioning the person from different large media platforms such as the NYT, BBC, Fox News, etc. from before they made claims about AI personhood\n\nHave a (verified) social media account with 100k+ followers, a TED talk, a prominent role in a film, or a book\n\nHave been interviewed on television or on a podcast with clearly more than 500k listeners\n\nFurthermore if I feel skeptical of the \"public figure\" status of someone (even if they pass these tests), I reserve the right to run a poll on Manifold asking if they should count, and can reject someone if a majority of respondents say they're not a public figure. I won't vote or bet.\n\nThe person must boldly claim that one or more AIs, LLMs, or similar machines are people with comparable moral status (rights, etc.) to human beings. They must not merely speculate or raise the issue, but must come down on the side of AIs being people. It must be a claim about a machine that exists, rather than a future machine. Claims of consciousness and sentience are evidence, but I will decide centrally on \"personhood,\" however they use the word.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/MaxHarms/7da32aaf114f.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-05-14T02:57:43.860000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2889.249058357013,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":23.83914566040039,"liquidity":1100.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ethics","philosophy-af8706ce1d7e","ai","consciousness"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Other","top_outcome_probability":0.632953,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-05-05T20:16:29.006099Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T20:16:29.006099Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MaxHarms/who-will-be-the-first-public-figure","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"732c515f3793","event_id":"e4ekHsg3VCRJVd71i5Sl","slug":null,"question":"Other","group_item_title":"Other","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.632953,0.367047],"probability":0.632953,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-05-14T02:57:43.860000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":235.8792288708945,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.221681594848633,"liquidity":153.82040181469742,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T22:46:31.695079Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T22:46:26.050995Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MaxHarms/who-will-be-the-first-public-figure","event_title":"Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? 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