{"source":"manifold","id":"eHgA4OV8P11rWdVKl5DH","ticker":null,"slug":"in-2040-will-expert-consensus-sugge","title":"In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?","description":"In 2040, I will spend some time reviewing the current state of expert discourse regarding innate psychological differences by biological sex. This review will consist of light-to-moderate internet reading, browsing studies that have been completed, and requesting the assistance of any personal acquaintances that can best help inform me. \n\nI will make a subjective judgment regarding the \"experts\" on this topic as of 2040, which will likely be a list of individuals who I (with the help of light research) consider best-informed in that future period. \n\nThere needs to be expert \"consensus\" for this market to resolve. If there is no consensus, I will update the market close timing to be 5 years in the future. I will continue to push out the close date until there is expert consensus. A rough approximation of consensus from my perspective is ~80% of experts voicing roughly the same thing. \n\nI will interpret \"strong\" subjectively. I don't have a great threshold in mind, but I can try to respond to questions in the comments section if helpful.  \n\nBy \"innate\" I am referring to the nature/nurture question (i.e., without regard to societal priming). \n\nI am referring to \"biological sex\" at birth - not gender. \n\n\nI'm not particularly knowledgeable about this subject as of market creation, but my rough understanding is that - as of market creation - there is no expert consensus on this question. \n\nI may \"n/a\" and/or \"unlist\" this question preemptively if it becomes a comment cesspool or if my quality of life decreases for having created the market. ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FVB4ZDU0qJn.png?alt=media&token=12b7d6b4-9566-45e0-a98b-b8cf767f26b7","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-03-15T01:46:13.484000Z","end_date":"2041-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12884.289170957098,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.62218475341797,"liquidity":1240.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.530994,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?","top_outcome_probability":0.530994,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/in-2040-will-expert-consensus-sugge","chart_24h":[0.530994,0.530994],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"eHgA4OV8P11rWdVKl5DH","event_id":"eHgA4OV8P11rWdVKl5DH","slug":"in-2040-will-expert-consensus-sugge","question":"In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?","group_item_title":null,"description":"In 2040, I will spend some time reviewing the current state of expert discourse regarding innate psychological differences by biological sex. This review will consist of light-to-moderate internet reading, browsing studies that have been completed, and requesting the assistance of any personal acquaintances that can best help inform me. \n\nI will make a subjective judgment regarding the \"experts\" on this topic as of 2040, which will likely be a list of individuals who I (with the help of light research) consider best-informed in that future period. \n\nThere needs to be expert \"consensus\" for this market to resolve. If there is no consensus, I will update the market close timing to be 5 years in the future. I will continue to push out the close date until there is expert consensus. A rough approximation of consensus from my perspective is ~80% of experts voicing roughly the same thing. \n\nI will interpret \"strong\" subjectively. I don't have a great threshold in mind, but I can try to respond to questions in the comments section if helpful.  \n\nBy \"innate\" I am referring to the nature/nurture question (i.e., without regard to societal priming). \n\nI am referring to \"biological sex\" at birth - not gender. \n\n\nI'm not particularly knowledgeable about this subject as of market creation, but my rough understanding is that - as of market creation - there is no expert consensus on this question. \n\nI may \"n/a\" and/or \"unlist\" this question preemptively if it becomes a comment cesspool or if my quality of life decreases for having created the market. ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FVB4ZDU0qJn.png?alt=media&token=12b7d6b4-9566-45e0-a98b-b8cf767f26b7","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.530994,0.469006],"probability":0.530994,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-03-15T01:46:13.484000Z","end_date":"2041-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12884.289170957098,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.62218475341797,"liquidity":1240.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Culture"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:43.497510Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/in-2040-will-expert-consensus-sugge","event_title":"In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?","chart_24h":[0.530994,0.530994]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/eHgA4OV8P11rWdVKl5DH","as_of":"2026-06-10T13:12:42.494910Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?\" — top market at 53% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}