{"source":"manifold","id":"fmWxTvauXHdjCdnsgVkW","ticker":null,"slug":"will-a-woman-walk-on-the-moon-befor","title":"Will a woman walk on the moon before a woman is president of the United States?","description":"The close date is arbitrary; either I or a moderator will extend the close date as needed until either of the criteria have been met.\n\nFor purposes of this market, \"woman\" is someone who identifies as a woman at the time of the respective event. If an astronaut or politician walked on the moon or became President of the United States as a man and then identified as transgender after leaving the moon or the Presidency, respectively, then that would not satisfy the criteria (unless they were to return to the moon or regain the presidency).\n\nI will not bet in this market.\n\n@/jks/will-a-woman-walk-on-mars-before-a ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-18T15:37:05.882000Z","end_date":"2033-01-21T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8042.452303929147,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":30.339893341064453,"liquidity":1380.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.682,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will a woman walk on the moon before a woman is president of the United States?","top_outcome_probability":0.682,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-22T21:07:24.526750Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-22T21:07:24.526750Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/jks/will-a-woman-walk-on-the-moon-befor","chart_24h":[0.682,0.682],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"fmWxTvauXHdjCdnsgVkW","event_id":"fmWxTvauXHdjCdnsgVkW","slug":"will-a-woman-walk-on-the-moon-befor","question":"Will a woman walk on the moon before a woman is president of the United States?","group_item_title":null,"description":"The close date is arbitrary; either I or a moderator will extend the close date as needed until either of the criteria have been met.\n\nFor purposes of this market, \"woman\" is someone who identifies as a woman at the time of the respective event. If an astronaut or politician walked on the moon or became President of the United States as a man and then identified as transgender after leaving the moon or the Presidency, respectively, then that would not satisfy the criteria (unless they were to return to the moon or regain the presidency).\n\nI will not bet in this market.\n\n@/jks/will-a-woman-walk-on-mars-before-a ","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.682,0.318],"probability":0.682,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-18T15:37:05.882000Z","end_date":"2033-01-21T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8042.452303929147,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":30.339893341064453,"liquidity":1380.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-03T07:46:18.347631Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-22T21:05:11.365129Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/jks/will-a-woman-walk-on-the-moon-befor","event_title":"Will a woman walk on the moon before a woman is president of the United States?","chart_24h":[0.682,0.682]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/fmWxTvauXHdjCdnsgVkW","as_of":"2026-07-03T16:27:44.897758Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will a woman walk on the moon before a woman is president of the United States?\" — top market at 68% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}