{"source":"manifold","id":"gECuP5ntsE","ticker":"gECuP5ntsE","slug":"will-the-next-millennium-problem-be-P89nScEZEt","title":"Will the next Millennium problem be solved by an AI lab or a mathematics department?","description":"Any successful proof seems likely to come from a team that includes both very good mathematicians and advanced AI programs. But which vibe will win credit in the public eye?\n\nIt's Google DeepMind, that's an AI lab. If it's Terrence Tao using GPT-6, that's a mathematics department. If it's David Budden using Claude, that's an AI lab. If the people involved are professors at a university, that's probably a mathematics department. If it seems the proof was marketing for an AI product, that's probably an AI lab.\n\nIf it's a frontier AI lab consulting with prominent mathematicians, that's still an AI lab driven solution.\n\nResolves based on my judgement. \n\nThere will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-21T05:01:53.606000Z","end_date":"2099-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10809.330388456245,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.964508056640625,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Culture","World","Science and Technology"],"tags":["millenium-prize-problems","culture-default","entertainment","news","science-default"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"AI lab","top_outcome_probability":0.804571,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-08-10T11:25:48.122579Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-10T11:25:48.122579Z","added_at":"2026-05-22T14:49:14.820535Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-next-millennium-problem-be-P89nScEZEt","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"OPdI0cEcgn","event_id":"gECuP5ntsE","slug":null,"question":"AI lab","group_item_title":"AI lab","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.804571,0.195429],"probability":0.804571,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-21T05:01:53.606000Z","end_date":"2099-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10808.330388456245,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.963871002197266,"liquidity":500.00000000000006,"categories":["Culture","World","Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-23T08:05:51.402332Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-23T08:05:33.147500Z","added_at":"2026-05-22T14:49:14.932221Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-next-millennium-problem-be-P89nScEZEt","event_title":"Will the next Millennium problem be solved by an AI lab or a mathematics department?","chart_24h":[0.804571,0.804571,0.804571,0.804571,0.804571,0.804571,0.804571,0.804571,0.804571,0.804571,0.804571,0.804571,0.804571,0.804571,0.804571,0.804571,0.804571,0.804571,0.804571,0.804571,0.804571,0.804571,0.804571,0.804571,0.804571,0.804571]},{"source":"manifold","id":"q9glAz2nIh","event_id":"gECuP5ntsE","slug":null,"question":"Mathematics department","group_item_title":"Mathematics department","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.195429,0.804571],"probability":0.195429,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-21T05:01:53.606000Z","end_date":"2099-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":0.17801249027252197,"liquidity":500.00000000000006,"categories":["Culture","World","Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-23T08:05:51.402332Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-23T08:05:33.147500Z","added_at":"2026-05-22T14:49:14.932221Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-next-millennium-problem-be-P89nScEZEt","event_title":"Will the next Millennium problem be solved by an AI lab or a mathematics department?","chart_24h":[0.195429,0.195429,0.195429,0.195429,0.195429,0.195429,0.195429,0.195429,0.195429,0.195429,0.195429,0.195429,0.195429,0.195429,0.195429,0.195429,0.195429,0.195429,0.195429,0.195429,0.195429,0.195429,0.195429,0.195429,0.195429,0.195429]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/gECuP5ntsE","as_of":"2026-08-23T08:06:21.698127Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the next Millennium problem be solved by an AI lab or a mathematics department?\" — top market at 80% probability across 2 outcomes","source_url":null}}