{"source":"manifold","id":"gIzoTy8BdRPiTHBhyi0F","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5","title":"Will we get fusion reactors before 2032?","description":"Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2032 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).\n\nQuestions with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5 (this question)\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-02fec46476dd \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a34a5044ccca \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-607391b6e7ff \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-9594f28b5777 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-c3873b782b65 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-8213a4d4f7e6 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-ca980dd1dca2 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-719c22dafd13 \n\nNumeric market:\n\n@/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors \n\nOther reference points for fusion reactors:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-585b179f8ac3 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ba35c785123c \n\nOther questions for 2032:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-b347b1a76a97 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-superconductors-before-9c92871092bc \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-0e33b4a24ab0 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-f591cd57e406 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ffd180fe8e3d \n\n@/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-0f2acadab75f \n\n@/RemNi/will-ai-extend-english-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNi/discovery-of-matter-outside-our-3d \n\n@/RemNi/full-vr-brain-computer-interface-be-93569dad097d \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-rouge-ai-before-2032 \n\n\nEngineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven\n\nThe fusion reactor must have been built by human civilization or one of its descendants in order to qualify in the context of this question.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F2tuVHt1ZGh.png?alt=media&token=58fb5338-b78f-43bd-b0ac-a483fe10e7ef","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-24T22:33:24.872000Z","end_date":"2032-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6464.395197978857,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.900503158569336,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.27472,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we get fusion reactors before 2032?","top_outcome_probability":0.27472,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5","chart_24h":[0.27472,0.27472],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"gIzoTy8BdRPiTHBhyi0F","event_id":"gIzoTy8BdRPiTHBhyi0F","slug":"will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5","question":"Will we get fusion reactors before 2032?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2032 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).\n\nQuestions with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5 (this question)\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-02fec46476dd \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a34a5044ccca \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-607391b6e7ff \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-9594f28b5777 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-c3873b782b65 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-8213a4d4f7e6 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-ca980dd1dca2 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-719c22dafd13 \n\nNumeric market:\n\n@/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors \n\nOther reference points for fusion reactors:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-585b179f8ac3 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ba35c785123c \n\nOther questions for 2032:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-b347b1a76a97 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-superconductors-before-9c92871092bc \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-0e33b4a24ab0 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-f591cd57e406 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ffd180fe8e3d \n\n@/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-0f2acadab75f \n\n@/RemNi/will-ai-extend-english-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNi/discovery-of-matter-outside-our-3d \n\n@/RemNi/full-vr-brain-computer-interface-be-93569dad097d \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-rouge-ai-before-2032 \n\n\nEngineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven\n\nThe fusion reactor must have been built by human civilization or one of its descendants in order to qualify in the context of this question.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F2tuVHt1ZGh.png?alt=media&token=58fb5338-b78f-43bd-b0ac-a483fe10e7ef","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.27472,0.72528],"probability":0.27472,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-24T22:33:24.872000Z","end_date":"2032-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6464.395197978857,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.900503158569336,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5","event_title":"Will we get fusion reactors before 2032?","chart_24h":[0.27472,0.27472]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/gIzoTy8BdRPiTHBhyi0F","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:13:39.889937Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will we get fusion reactors before 2032?\" — top market at 27% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}