{"source":"manifold","id":"gZ96pURhL5","ticker":null,"slug":"will-mitch-mcconnell-die-in-2026","title":"Will Mitch McConnell die in 2026?","description":"Market resolves YES if Mitch McConnell dies before January 1st, 2027. Resolves NO if he doesn't. Will resolve based on credible news sources, of course. Must be confirmed.\n\nContext: McConnell is currently hospitalized due to \"flu-like symptoms\" (Source: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/sen-mitch-mcconnell-hospitalized-after-experiencing-flu-symptoms/story?id=129834622). I will update this section when more information comes out.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-04T17:34:54.416000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6686.739638349701,"volume_24hr":14.693964437214303,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.024823188781738,"normalized_volume":29.09139060974121,"liquidity":100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["us-democracy","us-politics","magaland","mitch-mcconnell"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.353646,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Mitch McConnell die in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.353646,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.004450999999999983,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-98.31468957735011,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T15:46:40.423756Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T15:46:40.423756Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T02:59:59.985393Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Valerie/will-mitch-mcconnell-die-in-2026","chart_24h":[0.358097,0.358097,0.358097,0.358097,0.358097,0.341422,0.341422,0.341422,0.341422,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.353646,0.353646,0.353646],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"gZ96pURhL5","event_id":"gZ96pURhL5","slug":"will-mitch-mcconnell-die-in-2026","question":"Will Mitch McConnell die in 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Market resolves YES if Mitch McConnell dies before January 1st, 2027. Resolves NO if he doesn't. Will resolve based on credible news sources, of course. Must be confirmed.\n\nContext: McConnell is currently hospitalized due to \"flu-like symptoms\" (Source: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/sen-mitch-mcconnell-hospitalized-after-experiencing-flu-symptoms/story?id=129834622). I will update this section when more information comes out.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.353646,0.646354],"probability":0.353646,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-04T17:34:54.416000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6686.739638349701,"volume_24hr":14.693964437214303,"prob_24h_change":-0.004450999999999983,"volume_24h_change":-98.31468957735011,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.024823188781738,"normalized_volume":29.09139060974121,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T15:46:15.191441Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T15:46:15.191441Z","added_at":"2026-07-08T02:59:59.985393Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Valerie/will-mitch-mcconnell-die-in-2026","event_title":"Will Mitch McConnell die in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.358097,0.358097,0.358097,0.358097,0.358097,0.341422,0.341422,0.341422,0.341422,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.363971,0.353646,0.353646,0.353646]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/gZ96pURhL5","as_of":"2026-07-25T16:01:12.061054Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Mitch McConnell die in 2026?\" — top market at 35% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}