{"source":"manifold","id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","ticker":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":"what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-14T15:23:37.825000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":121431.59074171951,"volume_24hr":2756.4961896976793,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":61.815696716308594,"normalized_volume":50.772953033447266,"liquidity":8449.25,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"tags":["technology-default","ai","openai","stocks","metamarkets","apple","tech-stocks","tesla","google-ef2cf716540e","big-tech","apple-vision-pro","companies"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Nvidia","top_outcome_probability":0.207409,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.03940400000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1668.192835854371,"updated_at":"2026-08-28T22:38:09.165977Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-28T22:38:09.165977Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","chart_24h":[282.00000000001006,665.503993567239,665.503993567239,765.503993567239,1063.3065688112385,1885.5816217121937,2017.861788764706,2756.4961896976793],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"903841d63402","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"Nvidia","group_item_title":"Nvidia","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.207409,0.792591],"probability":0.207409,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-14T15:23:37.825000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4149.93674466188,"volume_24hr":1668.192835854371,"prob_24h_change":0.03940400000000002,"volume_24h_change":1668.192835854371,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.229984283447266,"normalized_volume":25.712024688720703,"liquidity":146.9097093716571,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:30.727080Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.168005,0.168005,0.168005,0.168005,0.294115,0.294115,0.294115,0.294115,0.294115,0.225844,0.225844,0.226657,0.226657,0.226657,0.226657,0.226657,0.173751,0.305662,0.305662,0.315652,0.315652,0.315652,0.207409,0.207409,0.207409,0.207409,0.207409]},{"source":"manifold","id":"510fb4118374","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"SpaceX","group_item_title":"SpaceX","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.118484,0.881516],"probability":0.118484,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-18T06:59:10.540000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3012.5689566860174,"volume_24hr":256.66325673543497,"prob_24h_change":0.030751,"volume_24h_change":256.66325673543497,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.35744285583496,"normalized_volume":23.773502349853516,"liquidity":25.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:30.727080Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.087733,0.087733,0.087733,0.087733,0.055031,0.055031,0.055031,0.055031,0.055031,0.11598,0.11598,0.11691,0.11691,0.11691,0.11691,0.11691,0.106109,0.10009,0.10009,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.118484,0.118484,0.118484,0.118484,0.118484]},{"source":"manifold","id":"f3233585d8ba","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"Alphabet","group_item_title":"Alphabet","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.110059,0.889941],"probability":0.110059,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-14T15:23:37.825000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3512.1062400785668,"volume_24hr":42.924570458755625,"prob_24h_change":-0.004337999999999995,"volume_24h_change":42.924570458755625,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.091991424560547,"normalized_volume":24.692546844482422,"liquidity":166.9097093716571,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:30.727080Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.114397,0.114397,0.114397,0.114397,0.09729,0.09729,0.09729,0.09729,0.09729,0.097611,0.097611,0.097854,0.097854,0.097854,0.097854,0.097854,0.11,0.093162,0.093162,0.09029,0.09029,0.09029,0.110059,0.110059,0.110059,0.110059,0.110059]},{"source":"manifold","id":"b9ce38e9471f","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"Apple","group_item_title":"Apple","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.110033,0.889967],"probability":0.110033,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-14T15:23:37.825000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1114.6603379403134,"volume_24hr":307.1374281616429,"prob_24h_change":-0.00326499999999999,"volume_24h_change":307.1374281616429,"normalized_vol_24hr":32.34539794921875,"normalized_volume":18.24150276184082,"liquidity":886.9097093716571,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:30.727080Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.113298,0.113298,0.113298,0.113298,0.10392,0.10392,0.10392,0.10392,0.10392,0.104116,0.104116,0.100563,0.100563,0.100563,0.100563,0.100563,0.11,0.100129,0.100129,0.100758,0.100758,0.100758,0.110033,0.110033,0.110033,0.110033,0.110033]},{"source":"manifold","id":"8801489d0f2f","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"Microsoft","group_item_title":"Microsoft","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.100033,0.899967],"probability":0.100033,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-14T15:23:37.825000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":715.4641992905574,"volume_24hr":44.11876502024381,"prob_24h_change":-0.0008610000000000007,"volume_24h_change":44.11876502024381,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.292573928833008,"normalized_volume":16.011627197265625,"liquidity":706.9097093716571,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:30.727080Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.100894,0.100894,0.100894,0.100894,0.090628,0.090628,0.090628,0.090628,0.090628,0.091536,0.091536,0.091679,0.091679,0.091679,0.091679,0.091679,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.088232,0.088232,0.088232,0.100033,0.100033,0.100033,0.100033,0.100033]},{"source":"manifold","id":"1060bfe28758","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"Anthropic ","group_item_title":"Anthropic ","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.096553,0.903447],"probability":0.096553,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-14T15:45:52.143000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4264.30378167069,"volume_24hr":53.42027618866268,"prob_24h_change":-0.023446999999999996,"volume_24h_change":53.42027618866268,"normalized_vol_24hr":15.733726501464844,"normalized_volume":25.880064010620117,"liquidity":25.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:30.727080Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.106133,0.106133,0.106133,0.106133,0.106133,0.108957,0.108957,0.109791,0.109791,0.109791,0.109791,0.109791,0.1171,0.071045,0.071045,0.071167,0.071167,0.071167,0.096553,0.096553,0.096553,0.096553,0.096553]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ec74715c2588","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"OpenAI","group_item_title":"OpenAI","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.093078,0.906922],"probability":0.093078,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-14T15:23:37.825000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2120.3313123831967,"volume_24hr":64.59296432111842,"prob_24h_change":-0.0059080000000000105,"volume_24h_change":64.59296432111842,"normalized_vol_24hr":17.238262176513672,"normalized_volume":21.735389709472656,"liquidity":86.9097093716571,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:30.727080Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.098986,0.098986,0.098986,0.098986,0.077148,0.077148,0.077148,0.077148,0.077148,0.077496,0.077496,0.077761,0.077761,0.077761,0.077761,0.077761,0.106014,0.082193,0.082193,0.079382,0.079382,0.079382,0.093078,0.093078,0.093078,0.093078,0.093078]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ad3f2bc3c292","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"Other","group_item_title":"Other","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.042229,0.957771],"probability":0.042229,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-14T15:23:37.825000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":110.33890359233229,"volume_24hr":2.9753340432994264,"prob_24h_change":0.0009190000000000031,"volume_24h_change":2.9753340432994264,"normalized_vol_24hr":1.8760616779327393,"normalized_volume":8.22715950012207,"liquidity":186.1528944459434,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:30.727080Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.04131,0.04131,0.04131,0.04131,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.041287,0.041287,0.041353,0.041353,0.041353,0.041353,0.041353,0.040554,0.040008,0.040008,0.039331,0.039331,0.039331,0.042229,0.042229,0.042229,0.042229,0.042229]},{"source":"manifold","id":"82zt0sdyd0","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"Strategy₿ (MSTR)","group_item_title":"Strategy₿ (MSTR)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.022293,0.977707],"probability":0.022293,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-05-18T17:27:27.104000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17120.63977072101,"volume_24hr":4.88864672809359,"prob_24h_change":-0.007449999999999998,"volume_24h_change":4.88864672809359,"normalized_vol_24hr":3.096355438232422,"normalized_volume":35.20241928100586,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:30.727080Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.029743,0.029743,0.029743,0.029743,0.025105,0.025105,0.025105,0.025105,0.025105,0.025183,0.025183,0.025241,0.025241,0.025241,0.025241,0.025241,0.024536,0.021008,0.021008,0.020441,0.020441,0.020441,0.022293,0.022293,0.022293,0.022293,0.022293]},{"source":"manifold","id":"8f089f1bc288","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"Amazon","group_item_title":"Amazon","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.018533,0.981467],"probability":0.018533,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-14T15:23:37.825000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":294.6964190612057,"volume_24hr":0.5041904713772851,"prob_24h_change":-0.005743999999999999,"volume_24h_change":0.5041904713772851,"normalized_vol_24hr":0.16416600346565247,"normalized_volume":11.99100112915039,"liquidity":46.909709371657094,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:30.727080Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.024277,0.024277,0.024277,0.024277,0.020266,0.020266,0.020266,0.020266,0.020266,0.021014,0.021014,0.021067,0.021067,0.021067,0.021067,0.021067,0.020433,0.017684,0.017684,0.017168,0.017168,0.017168,0.018533,0.018533,0.018533,0.018533,0.018533]},{"source":"manifold","id":"e0c56f07bc55","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"Tesla","group_item_title":"Tesla","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.016722,0.983278],"probability":0.016722,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-14T15:23:37.825000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1358.0110961833304,"volume_24hr":178.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.0038499999999999993,"volume_24h_change":178.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":26.504375457763672,"normalized_volume":19.28175926208496,"liquidity":186.9097093716571,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:30.727080Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.020572,0.020572,0.020572,0.020572,0.018939,0.018939,0.018939,0.018939,0.018939,0.018973,0.018973,0.018998,0.018998,0.018998,0.018998,0.018998,0.018688,0.01665,0.01665,0.016381,0.016381,0.016381,0.016722,0.016722,0.016722,0.016722,0.016722]},{"source":"manifold","id":"P8pLuPhnuE","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"Broadcom","group_item_title":"Broadcom","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.011691,0.988309],"probability":0.011691,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-04T12:54:00.587000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":641.9934021453772,"volume_24hr":2.0019287713035965,"prob_24h_change":-0.0034009999999999995,"volume_24h_change":2.0019287713035965,"normalized_vol_24hr":1.1901930570602417,"normalized_volume":15.488956451416016,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:30.727080Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.015092,0.015092,0.015092,0.015092,0.01345,0.01345,0.01345,0.01345,0.01345,0.013478,0.013478,0.0135,0.0135,0.0135,0.0135,0.0135,0.013239,0.011633,0.011633,0.011413,0.011413,0.011413,0.011691,0.011691,0.011691,0.011691,0.011691]},{"source":"manifold","id":"e22cb525a347","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"Meta","group_item_title":"Meta","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.011053,0.988947],"probability":0.011053,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-14T15:23:37.825000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":96.07104737630918,"volume_24hr":12.640313827693092,"prob_24h_change":-0.0031070000000000004,"volume_24h_change":12.640313827693092,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.725261211395264,"normalized_volume":7.755307197570801,"liquidity":46.909709371657094,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:30.727080Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.01416,0.01416,0.01416,0.01416,0.012423,0.012423,0.012423,0.012423,0.012423,0.012872,0.012872,0.012896,0.012896,0.012896,0.012896,0.012896,0.014764,0.010573,0.010573,0.01035,0.01035,0.01035,0.011053,0.011053,0.011053,0.011053,0.011053]},{"source":"manifold","id":"500e93729c3e","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"TSMC","group_item_title":"TSMC","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.011118,0.988882],"probability":0.011118,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-16T04:29:04.352000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":357.0496305902842,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.005023,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":12.811103820800781,"liquidity":25.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:34.744533Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.016141,0.016141,0.016141,0.016141,0.012938,0.012938,0.012938,0.012938,0.012938,0.01299,0.01299,0.013029,0.013029,0.013029,0.013029,0.013029,0.012563,0.010318,0.010318,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.011118,0.011118,0.011118,0.011118,0.011118]},{"source":"manifold","id":"lE99tUcRZp","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"Samsung","group_item_title":"Samsung","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.009423,0.990577],"probability":0.009423,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-11T02:55:03.279000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1655.9249419713544,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.001431,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":20.35577964782715,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:34.744533Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":"2026-05-11T03:12:07.842956Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.010854,0.010854,0.010854,0.010854,0.010007,0.010007,0.010007,0.010007,0.010007,0.010022,0.010022,0.010033,0.010033,0.010033,0.010033,0.010033,0.009895,0.009156,0.009156,0.009029,0.009029,0.009029,0.009423,0.009423,0.009423,0.009423,0.009423]},{"source":"manifold","id":"aaab6334a502","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"A company that did not exist at the posting of this question","group_item_title":"A company that did not exist at the posting of this question","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.005163,0.994837],"probability":0.005163,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-14T15:23:37.825000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":943.5573855331465,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.0008929999999999997,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":17.386199951171875,"liquidity":46.909709371657094,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:34.744533Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.006056,0.006056,0.006056,0.006056,0.005524,0.005524,0.005524,0.005524,0.005524,0.005534,0.005534,0.005541,0.005541,0.005541,0.005541,0.005541,0.005455,0.004999,0.004999,0.004921,0.004921,0.004921,0.005163,0.005163,0.005163,0.005163,0.005163]},{"source":"manifold","id":"6qqNLPlhd9","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"Oracle","group_item_title":"Oracle","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.003661,0.996339],"probability":0.003661,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-06T01:39:30.081000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":139.41207355235,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.0004320000000000001,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.057153701782227,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:34.744533Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.004093,0.004093,0.004093,0.004093,0.00384,0.00384,0.00384,0.00384,0.00384,0.003844,0.003844,0.003848,0.003848,0.003848,0.003848,0.003848,0.003806,0.003579,0.003579,0.003539,0.003539,0.003539,0.003661,0.003661,0.003661,0.003661,0.003661]},{"source":"manifold","id":"RO6u06Nnt0","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"ASML","group_item_title":"ASML","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.003552,0.996448],"probability":0.003552,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-20T11:16:28.051000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":555.8282458519315,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.00042400000000000033,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":14.807336807250977,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:34.744533Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.003976,0.003976,0.003976,0.003976,0.003727,0.003727,0.003727,0.003727,0.003727,0.003732,0.003732,0.003735,0.003735,0.003735,0.003735,0.003735,0.003694,0.003471,0.003471,0.003432,0.003432,0.003432,0.003552,0.003552,0.003552,0.003552,0.003552]},{"source":"manifold","id":"900af86867b4","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"ByteDance","group_item_title":"ByteDance","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.003147,0.996853],"probability":0.003147,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-24T04:36:10.774000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3715.548589819016,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.0007789999999999997,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.03424644470215,"liquidity":25.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:34.744533Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.003926,0.003926,0.003926,0.003926,0.003453,0.003453,0.003453,0.003453,0.003453,0.003461,0.003461,0.003468,0.003468,0.003468,0.003468,0.003468,0.003393,0.003012,0.003012,0.002949,0.002949,0.002949,0.003147,0.003147,0.003147,0.003147,0.003147]},{"source":"manifold","id":"cd6e0b40942f","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"Saudi Aramco","group_item_title":"Saudi Aramco","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.00122,0.99878],"probability":0.00122,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-14T15:23:37.825000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3.851321110017018,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.00016799999999999996,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":0.9239214062690735,"liquidity":46.909709371657094,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:34.744533Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.001388,0.001388,0.001388,0.001388,0.001289,0.001289,0.001289,0.001289,0.001289,0.001291,0.001291,0.001292,0.001292,0.001292,0.001292,0.001292,0.001276,0.001188,0.001188,0.001173,0.001173,0.001173,0.00122,0.00122,0.00122,0.00122,0.00122]},{"source":"manifold","id":"2ecbd696854a","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"Intel","group_item_title":"Intel","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.000789,0.999211],"probability":0.000789,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-14T16:43:25.025000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.00010400000000000003,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":1.18930184841156,"liquidity":25.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:34.744533Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.000893,0.000893,0.000893,0.000893,0.000832,0.000832,0.000832,0.000832,0.000832,0.000833,0.000833,0.000834,0.000834,0.000834,0.000834,0.000834,0.000824,0.00077,0.00077,0.00076,0.00076,0.00076,0.000789,0.000789,0.000789,0.000789,0.000789]},{"source":"manifold","id":"31666c18a26f","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"Berkshire Hathaway","group_item_title":"Berkshire Hathaway","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.00068,0.99932],"probability":0.00068,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-14T16:27:21.717000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3.651251305461571,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.00007699999999999992,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":0.8753010034561157,"liquidity":25.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:34.744533Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.000757,0.000757,0.000757,0.000757,0.000712,0.000712,0.000712,0.000712,0.000712,0.000713,0.000713,0.000713,0.000713,0.000713,0.000713,0.000713,0.000706,0.000665,0.000665,0.000658,0.000658,0.000658,0.00068,0.00068,0.00068,0.00068,0.00068]},{"source":"manifold","id":"67d5e6688ffa","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"Eli Lilly","group_item_title":"Eli Lilly","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.000669,0.999331],"probability":0.000669,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-20T02:20:52.844000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5.304356665692109,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.00006800000000000003,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":1.2558966875076294,"liquidity":25.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:34.744533Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.000737,0.000737,0.000737,0.000737,0.000697,0.000697,0.000697,0.000697,0.000697,0.000698,0.000698,0.000699,0.000699,0.000699,0.000699,0.000699,0.000692,0.000656,0.000656,0.000649,0.000649,0.000649,0.000669,0.000669,0.000669,0.000669,0.000669]},{"source":"manifold","id":"f9937b770e1b","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"Walmart","group_item_title":"Walmart","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.000654,0.999346],"probability":0.000654,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-14T16:26:49.134000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4.429214124425457,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.00008700000000000005,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":1.0602977275848389,"liquidity":25.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:34.744533Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.000741,0.000741,0.000741,0.000741,0.00069,0.00069,0.00069,0.00069,0.00069,0.000691,0.000691,0.000691,0.000691,0.000691,0.000691,0.000691,0.000683,0.000638,0.000638,0.00063,0.00063,0.00063,0.000654,0.000654,0.000654,0.000654,0.000654]},{"source":"manifold","id":"7b218cfd65b7","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"Baidu","group_item_title":"Baidu","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.00063,0.99937],"probability":0.00063,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-14T16:24:47.999000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.00008100000000000002,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":0.9595798850059509,"liquidity":25.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:34.744533Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.000711,0.000711,0.000711,0.000711,0.000664,0.000664,0.000664,0.000664,0.000664,0.000664,0.000664,0.000665,0.000665,0.000665,0.000665,0.000665,0.000657,0.000615,0.000615,0.000608,0.000608,0.000608,0.00063,0.00063,0.00063,0.00063,0.00063]},{"source":"manifold","id":"d68cddef2d6e","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"Tencent","group_item_title":"Tencent","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.000585,0.999415],"probability":0.000585,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-14T15:23:37.825000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5.656975582381492,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.00008799999999999997,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":1.331238865852356,"liquidity":46.909709371657094,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:34.744533Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.000673,0.000673,0.000673,0.000673,0.000621,0.000621,0.000621,0.000621,0.000621,0.000622,0.000622,0.000622,0.000622,0.000622,0.000622,0.000622,0.000614,0.000568,0.000568,0.000561,0.000561,0.000561,0.000585,0.000585,0.000585,0.000585,0.000585]},{"source":"manifold","id":"e67527b91b2c","event_id":"gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","slug":null,"question":"IBM","group_item_title":"IBM","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.000539,0.999461],"probability":0.000539,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-14T15:23:37.825000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.000046000000000000034,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":0.447117418050766,"liquidity":46.909709371657094,"categories":["Science and Technology","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T03:07:34.744533Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-29T03:05:42.561541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MikhaFischler/what-will-be-the-largest-company-in","event_title":"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030","chart_24h":[0.000585,0.000585,0.000585,0.000585,0.000558,0.000558,0.000558,0.000558,0.000558,0.000559,0.000559,0.000559,0.000559,0.000559,0.000559,0.000559,0.000555,0.00053,0.00053,0.000526,0.000526,0.000526,0.000539,0.000539,0.000539,0.000539,0.000539]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9","as_of":"2026-08-29T03:11:02.374718Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030\" — top market at 21% probability across 27 outcomes","source_url":null}}