{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/gsBQWIwoFPfz0wrK1oE3","as_of":"2026-10-24T07:14:36.825680Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?\" — 4% as of 2026-10-14 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/gsBQWIwoFPfz0wrK1oE3","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/will-there-be-a-federal-law-banning"},"source":"manifold","id":"gsBQWIwoFPfz0wrK1oE3","ticker":null,"slug":"will-there-be-a-federal-law-banning","title":"Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?","description":"This market resolves to YES if, by 5/9/2027, the federal government passes a law saying that abortion is banned in all 50 states. A law can qualify even if it carves out exceptions for certain subsets of women (eg those whose health are in danger). This market resolves to YES immediately after this happens, even if the law is later repealed or struck down.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-05-09T23:30:59.973000Z","end_date":"2027-05-10T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10122.547175700463,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.284868240356445,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.036976,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?","top_outcome_probability":0.036976,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-14T04:02:54.380573Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-14T04:02:54.380573Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/will-there-be-a-federal-law-banning","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"gsBQWIwoFPfz0wrK1oE3","event_id":"gsBQWIwoFPfz0wrK1oE3","slug":"will-there-be-a-federal-law-banning","question":"Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market resolves to YES if, by 5/9/2027, the federal government passes a law saying that abortion is banned in all 50 states. A law can qualify even if it carves out exceptions for certain subsets of women (eg those whose health are in danger). This market resolves to YES immediately after this happens, even if the law is later repealed or struck down.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.036976,0.963024],"probability":0.036976,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-05-09T23:30:59.973000Z","end_date":"2027-05-10T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":10122.547175700463,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.284868240356445,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-14T04:00:22.235978Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-14T04:00:22.235978Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/will-there-be-a-federal-law-banning","event_title":"Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?","chart_24h":null}]}