{"source":"manifold","id":"gx18r8g6AM5sXGJ0lpSQ","ticker":null,"slug":"will-tesla-provide-an-autonomous-dr","title":"Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026","description":"The service allows anyone within some area (possibly a restricted area, possibly not) to hail an autonomous Tesla. They are either not able to or not required to drive it themselves.\n\nDec 3, 7:12pm: Will Tesla provide an autonomous driving service before the end of 2026 → Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026\n\nUpdate 2026-01-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve YES until the service has a larger number of cars operating in the area. A small pilot program where most hail attempts result in a safety driver does not meet the resolution requirements for an autonomous service.\n\nUpdate 2026-01-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the market to resolve YES, wait times must stay under 20 minutes over a practically broad area to count as the service being available.\n\nUpdate 2026-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is waiting for clearer evidence that the service is meeting demand before resolving YES. Currently, wait-time tracking data is unavailable, making it impossible to verify whether the service meets the criteria (wait times under 20 minutes over a practically broad area).\n\nUpdate 2026-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator acknowledges that wait time is an imperfect metric and that no single ungameable metric exists. The market may not hinge solely on wait times — the creator will use judgment across multiple indicators of whether a real, broadly available service is being provided, rather than a small-scale public spectacle.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F-3WtSxuAH9.png?alt=media&token=6f0637fc-37a1-41d7-919d-3a485e998ee9","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-12-03T06:10:39.002000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":38865.62988180285,"volume_24hr":200.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.856602668762207,"normalized_volume":41.92422866821289,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ai","elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.663881,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.663881,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.07147800000000004,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":180.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T14:13:19.612524Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T14:13:19.612524Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/makoyass/will-tesla-provide-an-autonomous-dr","chart_24h":[0.592403,0.592403,0.592403,0.592403,0.592403,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"gx18r8g6AM5sXGJ0lpSQ","event_id":"gx18r8g6AM5sXGJ0lpSQ","slug":"will-tesla-provide-an-autonomous-dr","question":"Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026","group_item_title":null,"description":"The service allows anyone within some area (possibly a restricted area, possibly not) to hail an autonomous Tesla. They are either not able to or not required to drive it themselves.\n\nDec 3, 7:12pm: Will Tesla provide an autonomous driving service before the end of 2026 → Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026\n\nUpdate 2026-01-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve YES until the service has a larger number of cars operating in the area. A small pilot program where most hail attempts result in a safety driver does not meet the resolution requirements for an autonomous service.\n\nUpdate 2026-01-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the market to resolve YES, wait times must stay under 20 minutes over a practically broad area to count as the service being available.\n\nUpdate 2026-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is waiting for clearer evidence that the service is meeting demand before resolving YES. Currently, wait-time tracking data is unavailable, making it impossible to verify whether the service meets the criteria (wait times under 20 minutes over a practically broad area).\n\nUpdate 2026-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator acknowledges that wait time is an imperfect metric and that no single ungameable metric exists. The market may not hinge solely on wait times — the creator will use judgment across multiple indicators of whether a real, broadly available service is being provided, rather than a small-scale public spectacle.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F-3WtSxuAH9.png?alt=media&token=6f0637fc-37a1-41d7-919d-3a485e998ee9","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.663881,0.336119],"probability":0.663881,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-12-03T06:10:39.002000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":38865.62988180285,"volume_24hr":200.0,"prob_24h_change":0.07147800000000004,"volume_24h_change":180.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.856602668762207,"normalized_volume":41.92422866821289,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T14:12:48.020936Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T14:12:48.020936Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/makoyass/will-tesla-provide-an-autonomous-dr","event_title":"Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026","chart_24h":[0.592403,0.592403,0.592403,0.592403,0.592403,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881,0.663881]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/gx18r8g6AM5sXGJ0lpSQ","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:15:47.969545Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026\" — top market at 66% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}