{"source":"manifold","id":"h0g2N0cqIN","ticker":"h0g2N0cqIN","slug":"will-donald-trump-complete-his-seco","title":"Will Donald Trump complete his second presidential term (2025–2029)?","description":"Completes full term\nTrump remains President and alive through January 20, 2029, and peacefully transfers power on that date as required by the Constitution.\nStaying in office beyond January 20, 2029 for any reason will not count as completing a full term. \n\nDoes not complete term\nTrump leaves office before January 20, 2029 by resignation, impeachment, 25th Amendment process, legal action, incapacity, voluntary hand-over, exile, coup, or any other non-fatal removal, and remains alive.\n\nIf Trump is still claiming presidential authority after Jan 20, 2029, thus not ‘completing’ his term, the market will resolve to this option.\n\nDies of natural causes or illness\n\nTrump dies from disease, aging, or any internal medical cause while serving as President.\n\nDies from assassination or external violence\nTrump dies as a result of assassination, attack, or any external act of violence while serving as President.\n\nResolution Notes:\n\nOutcome determined by official announcements and consensus from major news outlets.\n\n“Completes full term” requires Trump to leave office on January 20, 2029.\n\n“Does not complete term” includes any non-fatal early departure.\n\n“Natural causes or illness” = any internal medical cause (includes accidents not provably violent).\n\n“Assassination or external violence” = any fatal external attack (includes e.g. air crashes provably caused by hostile intent).\n\nThis market is for predictive purposes only and does not advocate or endorse any outcome.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that to resolve as Completes full term, Trump must remain President through January 20, 2029. 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