{"source":"manifold","id":"h8tQQ9PRsC","ticker":null,"slug":"will-this-tweet-hold-up-starship-wi","title":"will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]","description":"per this tweet:\n\n\n[tweet]Will Starship make its first flight to Mars by October 27, 2026?\n\nmarket resolves when Starship makes its first flight to Mars. Starship must land on Mars - any incidents between takeoff and arrival that compromise the ship (and preclude it from landing) will not count for a Yes resolution.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/shankypanky/sccshEcgqu.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-10-27T17:21:51.161000Z","end_date":"2026-10-28T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21955.983710793265,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.51569747924805,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.011718,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]","top_outcome_probability":0.011718,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/shankypanky/will-this-tweet-hold-up-starship-wi","chart_24h":[0.011718,0.011718],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"h8tQQ9PRsC","event_id":"h8tQQ9PRsC","slug":"will-this-tweet-hold-up-starship-wi","question":"will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]","group_item_title":null,"description":"per this tweet:\n\n\n[tweet]Will Starship make its first flight to Mars by October 27, 2026?\n\nmarket resolves when Starship makes its first flight to Mars. Starship must land on Mars - any incidents between takeoff and arrival that compromise the ship (and preclude it from landing) will not count for a Yes resolution.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/shankypanky/sccshEcgqu.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.011718,0.988282],"probability":0.011718,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-10-27T17:21:51.161000Z","end_date":"2026-10-28T06:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21955.983710793265,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.51569747924805,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/shankypanky/will-this-tweet-hold-up-starship-wi","event_title":"will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]","chart_24h":[0.011718,0.011718]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/h8tQQ9PRsC","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:38:18.195429Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]\" — top market at 1% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}