{"source":"manifold","id":"hNEBP19ImdDj7ugd8Ugk","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-state-of-palestine-hold-a","title":"Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?","description":"The last election was in 2005. Future elections have been \"postponed indefinitely\" by current president Mahmoud Abbas.\n\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Palestinian_presidential_election\n\nMust be recognized internationally as a valid and fair election for the leadership of the State of Palestine (particularly by the UN and leaders of western nations).\n\nDoesn't necessarily need to be called a \"presidential election\".\nDisqualifying some potential candidates (Like Hamas) is ok.\n\nI will not be betting on this market.\n\nThis market will be resolved according to the spirit of the question if there is ambiguity. ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FJipNKGxT-v.png?alt=media&token=e17429a9-3f33-4fb0-b591-1d1449c52eed","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-04-21T13:37:15.764000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T22:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4717.402243036213,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":26.862764358520508,"liquidity":1175.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.336335,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.336335,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Shai/will-the-state-of-palestine-hold-a","chart_24h":[0.336335,0.336335],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"hNEBP19ImdDj7ugd8Ugk","event_id":"hNEBP19ImdDj7ugd8Ugk","slug":"will-the-state-of-palestine-hold-a","question":"Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"The last election was in 2005. Future elections have been \"postponed indefinitely\" by current president Mahmoud Abbas.\n\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Palestinian_presidential_election\n\nMust be recognized internationally as a valid and fair election for the leadership of the State of Palestine (particularly by the UN and leaders of western nations).\n\nDoesn't necessarily need to be called a \"presidential election\".\nDisqualifying some potential candidates (Like Hamas) is ok.\n\nI will not be betting on this market.\n\nThis market will be resolved according to the spirit of the question if there is ambiguity. ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FJipNKGxT-v.png?alt=media&token=e17429a9-3f33-4fb0-b591-1d1449c52eed","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.336335,0.663665],"probability":0.336335,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-04-21T13:37:15.764000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T22:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4717.402243036213,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":26.862764358520508,"liquidity":1175.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T22:28:30.129261Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-18T06:10:30.413714Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Shai/will-the-state-of-palestine-hold-a","event_title":"Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?","chart_24h":[0.336335,0.336335]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/hNEBP19ImdDj7ugd8Ugk","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:02:57.352849Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?\" — top market at 34% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}