{"source":"manifold","id":"hcEczypgqu","ticker":null,"slug":"would-freddie-deboer-win-his-propos","title":"Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?","description":"Freddie deBoer offered Scott Alexander the following wager (see https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/im-offering-scott-alexander-a-wager )\n\nLet's say that they did agree under those original conditions. Each one is very wide, but he only has to lose once.\n\nThis resolves to YES if Freddie is right about ALL of these conditions.\n\nThis resolves to NO if Freddie is wrong about AT LEAST ONE of these conditions.\n\nBet Conditions (Predicting a “Normal Economy”)\n\nFor me to win the wager, all of the following must be true on Feb 14, 2029:\n\nLabor Market:\n\nThe U.S. unemployment rate is equal to or lower than 18%\n\nLabor force participation rate, ages 25-54, is equal to or greater than 68%\n\nNo single BLS occupational category will have lost 50% or more of jobs between now and February 14th 2029\n\nEconomic Growth & Productivity:\n\nU.S. GDP is within -30% to +35% of February 2026 levels (inflation-adjusted)\n\nNonfarm labor productivity growth has not exceeded 8% in any individual year or 20% for the three-year period\n\nPrices & Markets:\n\nThe S&P 500 is within -60% to +225% of the February 2026 level\n\nCPI inflation averaged over 3 years is between -2% and +18% annually\n\nCorporate & Structural:\n\nThe Fortune 500 median profit margin is between 2% and 35%\n\nThe largest 5 companies don’t account for more than 65% of the total S&P 500 market cap\n\nWhite Collar & Knowledge Workers:\n\n“Professional and Business Services” employment, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has not declined by more than 35% from February 2026\n\nCombined employment in software developers, accountants, lawyers, consultants, and writers, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has not declined by more than 45%\n\nMedian wage for “computer and mathematical occupations,” as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is not more than 60% lower in real terms than in February 2026\n\nThe college wage premium (median earnings of bachelor's degree holders vs high school only) has not fallen below 30%\n\nInequality:\n\nThe Gini coefficient is less than 0.60\n\nThe top 1%’s income share is less than 35%\n\nThe top 0.1% wealth share is less than 30%\n\nMedian household income has not fallen by more than 40% relative to mean household income\n\nThose are the bet conditions. If any one of those conditions is not met, if any of those statements are untrue on February 14th 2029, I lose the bet. If all of those statements remain true on February 14th 2029, I win the bet. That’s the wager.\n\n[link preview]","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-14T17:26:26.258000Z","end_date":"2029-02-14T17:23:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":41989.79320828329,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":42.51227951049805,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.65618,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?","top_outcome_probability":0.65618,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-10T11:49:19.440032Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-10T11:49:19.440032Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/would-freddie-deboer-win-his-propos","chart_24h":[0.65618,0.65618],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"hcEczypgqu","event_id":"hcEczypgqu","slug":"would-freddie-deboer-win-his-propos","question":"Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Freddie deBoer offered Scott Alexander the following wager (see https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/im-offering-scott-alexander-a-wager )\n\nLet's say that they did agree under those original conditions. Each one is very wide, but he only has to lose once.\n\nThis resolves to YES if Freddie is right about ALL of these conditions.\n\nThis resolves to NO if Freddie is wrong about AT LEAST ONE of these conditions.\n\nBet Conditions (Predicting a “Normal Economy”)\n\nFor me to win the wager, all of the following must be true on Feb 14, 2029:\n\nLabor Market:\n\nThe U.S. unemployment rate is equal to or lower than 18%\n\nLabor force participation rate, ages 25-54, is equal to or greater than 68%\n\nNo single BLS occupational category will have lost 50% or more of jobs between now and February 14th 2029\n\nEconomic Growth & Productivity:\n\nU.S. GDP is within -30% to +35% of February 2026 levels (inflation-adjusted)\n\nNonfarm labor productivity growth has not exceeded 8% in any individual year or 20% for the three-year period\n\nPrices & Markets:\n\nThe S&P 500 is within -60% to +225% of the February 2026 level\n\nCPI inflation averaged over 3 years is between -2% and +18% annually\n\nCorporate & Structural:\n\nThe Fortune 500 median profit margin is between 2% and 35%\n\nThe largest 5 companies don’t account for more than 65% of the total S&P 500 market cap\n\nWhite Collar & Knowledge Workers:\n\n“Professional and Business Services” employment, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has not declined by more than 35% from February 2026\n\nCombined employment in software developers, accountants, lawyers, consultants, and writers, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has not declined by more than 45%\n\nMedian wage for “computer and mathematical occupations,” as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is not more than 60% lower in real terms than in February 2026\n\nThe college wage premium (median earnings of bachelor's degree holders vs high school only) has not fallen below 30%\n\nInequality:\n\nThe Gini coefficient is less than 0.60\n\nThe top 1%’s income share is less than 35%\n\nThe top 0.1% wealth share is less than 30%\n\nMedian household income has not fallen by more than 40% relative to mean household income\n\nThose are the bet conditions. If any one of those conditions is not met, if any of those statements are untrue on February 14th 2029, I lose the bet. If all of those statements remain true on February 14th 2029, I win the bet. That’s the wager.\n\n[link preview]","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.65618,0.34382],"probability":0.65618,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-14T17:26:26.258000Z","end_date":"2029-02-14T17:23:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":41989.79320828329,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":42.51227951049805,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-13T13:08:05.444353Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-10T11:47:16.754101Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/would-freddie-deboer-win-his-propos","event_title":"Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?","chart_24h":[0.65618,0.65618]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/hcEczypgqu","as_of":"2026-07-14T11:09:50.559707Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?\" — top market at 66% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}