{"source":"manifold","id":"i0ulRxoiFvpQwzYW47fU","ticker":null,"slug":"will-china-militarily-seize-any-of-2b66323bdfda","title":"Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?","description":"Taiwan possesses four island groups off the coast of mainland China: Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Wuqiu, and Penghu.\n\n[image]China might opt to seize one or more of these islands in the coming years, either to test American and Taiwanese resolve, as a bargaining chip, as salami tactics, or as part of an invasion or naval blockade.\n\nWill China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands before 2030?\n\nSame question except:\n\nbefore end of 2024\n\nbefore end of 2025\n\nbefore end of 2026\n\nbefore end of 2027\n\nbefore end of 2028","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-17T18:56:43.128000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10673.268086610778,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.872241973876953,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.362911,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.362911,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-27T17:45:39.688089Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-27T17:45:39.688089Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/cash/will-china-militarily-seize-any-of-2b66323bdfda","chart_24h":[0.362911,0.362911],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"i0ulRxoiFvpQwzYW47fU","event_id":"i0ulRxoiFvpQwzYW47fU","slug":"will-china-militarily-seize-any-of-2b66323bdfda","question":"Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Taiwan possesses four island groups off the coast of mainland China: Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Wuqiu, and Penghu.\n\n[image]China might opt to seize one or more of these islands in the coming years, either to test American and Taiwanese resolve, as a bargaining chip, as salami tactics, or as part of an invasion or naval blockade.\n\nWill China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands before 2030?\n\nSame question except:\n\nbefore end of 2024\n\nbefore end of 2025\n\nbefore end of 2026\n\nbefore end of 2027\n\nbefore end of 2028","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.362911,0.637089],"probability":0.362911,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-17T18:56:43.128000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10673.268086610778,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.872241973876953,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["China","Taiwan"],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T10:19:15.387484Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-27T17:44:52.671267Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/cash/will-china-militarily-seize-any-of-2b66323bdfda","event_title":"Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?","chart_24h":[0.362911,0.362911]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/i0ulRxoiFvpQwzYW47fU","as_of":"2026-08-29T20:02:01.622919Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?\" — top market at 36% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}